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Statistics Sweden’s forecast is based on data for the first eight months of the year and calculations based on last year’s figures for the period from September to December.
If the death rate during the last months of the year is higher than in the same period of 2019, life expectancy will fall 0.6 years for women and 0.9 years for men in 2020, according to Statistics calculations. Sweden.
Even if mortality is the same or lower in the fall and winter months than last year, the numbers decrease. In those scenarios, Statistics Sweden expects a decrease of between 0.2 and 0.5 years.
Life expectancy has increased year after year in Sweden for a long time, with some minor deviations. The last time the figure fell for both sexes was between 1987 and -88, then by 0.1 years for men and 0.2 for women.
The loss in 2020 appears to be greater than Statistics Sweden previously thought, says Örjan Hemström, a demographer with the authority.
“Overall, this could be the biggest reduction in two years since 1944,” he told DN.
Covid-19 was below the first half of the year the third most common cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer, according to figures from the National Health and Welfare Council. Örjan Hemström thinks it is clear that this year’s decline is due to the pandemic.
– Figures from the National Board of Health and Welfare show that covid-19 has caused many deaths. The development of life expectancy is usually relatively stable, so deviant figures usually have a clear explanation, he says.
But the large decrease expected this year is not only explained by the many deaths in covid-19.
– If you put it in perspective, we had a big increase in 2019, which was as big as the drop this year, as it seems, says Örjan Hemström.
It is supported by Karin Modig, a researcher at the Institute of Environmental Medicine at the Karolinska Institutet.
– Last year was a special year with low mortality. It was a mild winter, a mild flu season. So compared to last year, the loss will be very large, he says.
A year with a strong positive development in life expectancy is usually followed by a year with a small increase. This was the case, for example, in 1994, when the increase was large, and in 1995, when the number did not increase at all. The reason is that a low mortality year means there are older and weaker people in society.
That phenomenon may have contributed to the high death rate in covid-19, says Karin Modig.
– May be part of the explanation. So I don’t know if it makes Sweden stand out from other countries. I don’t think I can explain the differences between the Nordic countries, which some have spoken about, he says.
The long-term increase The trend has existed in Sweden since the second half of the 19th century, but several factors have temporarily broken the trend. During the 20th century, the peaks and valleys have become smaller and smaller. Today, these changes are often related to what the flu season looks like, Örjan Hemström explains.
The Spanish disease is the one that has had the greatest impact on development in the last century. Between 1917 and 1918, life expectancy fell by 8.7 years for women and 9.5 years for men.
– It was mainly young people who died from the Spanish flu and life expectancy is much more affected when people are lost at a young age. That is why there was such a big drop there. In covid-19, especially older people die, so now it is more than a large number of people who have died, says Karin Modig.
Men look like this they lose more life expectancy than women this year, which means that the gender gap will widen for the first time in decades. There are also clear regional differences in Statistics Sweden’s forecast. In Stockholm, stagnation is higher, while Västerbotten appears to have a higher life expectancy in 2020 as well.
– I thought the regional differences were interesting. Normally we don’t see such big differences between different parts of the country, says Örjan Hemström.
Life expectancy is likely to increase It will not end at the 2019 level as soon as the pandemic ends, but it will surely return to the long-term growing trend, Örjan Hemmingson explains.
– Now it can also be the case of crown that there will be some indirect effects. For example, it has been said that fewer people have been screened for cancer, etc. It could cause a few additional deaths down the road, but generally it starts to rise again after a loss like this, he says.
