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During the press conference on Thursday, the Swedish Public Health Agency presented a new infection scenario that is valid until March next year.
Tegnell: the spread of infection can be stopped earlier
The scenario is based on confirmed COVID-19 infections from August 24 to November 6.
The prognosis is that the infection curve may peak in mid-December and then level out.
But the reality is a better development than the prognosis, which may mean that the infection curve changes even earlier.
– We may see a tendency for it to break earlier. If we can continue to keep our contacts low, we can probably hope this is true. The exact level of how much we follow the recommendations is difficult to put into a model, says Anders Tegnell during Thursday’s press conference.
The new setting
The scenario now presented by the Public Health Agency applies to all age groups in Sweden and runs until March 2021. To distinguish differences in the population, the model is divided into the age groups 0-19 years , 20 to 69 years and 70 years and over.
In reality, the covid cases found are currently slightly less than in the model, and this may be partly due to the fact that the calculations are based on the cases reported up to November 6.
Depending on the scenario, the peak of spread of the infection in the population is expected to be reached in mid-December. But if you look at the different age groups, the 0-19 age group seems to be at its peak right now.
Source Public Health Agency
Anders Tegnell: Depends on the recommendations
According to the state epidemiologist, the level is lower than the model already predicts. He believes this may indicate that the local councils that have been issued may have had a greater effect than the Public Health Agency expected.
Perhaps the change of course can only be anticipated in a few weeks, according to Tegnell.
– This model indicates that we will have a continuous spread of the infection for one or a few more weeks before it breaks. It largely depends on how we follow the advice, recommendations and guidelines in effect at the moment, says Anders Tegnell.
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