[ad_1]
From: TT
Published:
Photo: Emma-Sofia Olsson / SvD / TT
Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, criticizes the fact that Sweden did not tighten restrictions when the rise in infection accelerated in early autumn. Stock Photography.
In October, math professor Tom Britton predicted that another 100 people would die from COVID-19 in Sweden by the New Year, if everyone respected the restrictions. Now he thinks the figure will be significantly higher.
– The number of infections increases about 50 percent per week. It’s very disturbing, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University.
Like many other observers, both in Sweden and in the rest of Europe, he expected minor local outbreaks during the fall. Instead, the infection spreads on a broad front.
– It’s probably partly because we released the guard. During the summer, when it was heard that no one was infected, people probably began to ignore the advice that was applied. But then we were outside. Now that it’s colder and we’re crammed indoors, the infection is gathering momentum, says Britton.
Three factors
The situation in Sweden is again much more serious than in neighboring Norway, Finland and Denmark. Tom Britton explains that, broadly speaking, there are three factors that control the spread of infection in a country.
The first is the original reproduction rate, that is, the number of people infected by one infected person on average before infection control measures or immunity come into play. The second factor is the degree of immunity of the population and the third is the way in which vigorous measures are taken to slow the spread of the infection.
– Of these three factors, two are disadvantageous in Sweden compared to other Nordic countries. On the one hand, we have a higher initial reproduction rate and, on the other, we slow down less than other countries. At the same time, we have a certain immunity that benefits us, but for which we paid a very high price this spring, says Tom Britton.
Significantly earlier
It criticizes the fact that the stricter advice, recommendations and restrictions that are now starting to apply in Sweden were not implemented before.
– Our neighboring countries hit the brakes much earlier and with more force than us, already when they saw that the infection was rising. It was only when it started to increase in hospitals that we did anything. It was unnecessary, because when infection rates increase, it can be guaranteed that it will increase in hospitals two weeks later. Sweden slowed down too late, Britton says.
TT: How many more do you think will die in the pandemic in Sweden?
– I believe and hope there will be less than 1,000 until New Years. But it completely depends on what we do and how well we follow the recommendations. Now we have pretty strong measures, I would say. In principle, you should avoid spending time with anyone other than immediate family, says Britton.
Mouth guards in public transport
TT: How long will this last?
– I think this second wave will start to fade in a month, but the death toll will probably continue to rise for a few more weeks. But it is not the case that we can return to normal life without restrictions. This probably only happens when a large enough proportion of the population has been vaccinated.
TT: What do you consider to be a smart move that could further slow down the infection at this point?
– Mouth protection has become such a loaded topic, but I think it would help if those who really can’t avoid congestion put on mouth protection, for example, on public transport and at the grocery store. I had it myself when I last bought it, says Tom Britton.
Published:
