Lena Hallengren in the second wave: stronger than expected

From: Anna Sjögren

Published: November 13, 2020 kl. 18.35
Updated: November 13, 2020 kl. 19.12

There is no new corona wave, but local shoots in clusters.

The Public Health Agency’s forecast for what the autumn pandemic would be like in Sweden turned out to be wrong. Something that affected the preparation, according to regions.

– It has become a much stronger and faster spread of the infection in much of the country, says the Minister of Social Affairs Lena Hallengren (S).

After a summer in which many European countries saw low infection rates and few deaths, the spread of infection on the continent began to accelerate again in early fall. Eastern European countries that survived slightly in the first wave suddenly saw a rapidly rising infection, and then the rise in infection accelerated again on a broad front. And now the infection is increasing in much of Sweden. Our spread of infection is ten times higher than in Finland, four times higher than in Norway and twice higher than in Denmark.

– I can understand that you make that comparison, but I think it is important to keep in mind that if we look around Europe, we have a different situation in which the infection looks different. It is difficult to say why we differ from our Nordic neighbors but not from others. I don’t think anyone has an answer to that, says Lena Hallengren, Minister of Social Affairs, when Aftonbladet contacts her by phone.

Photo: MAGNUS SANDBERG

Minister of Social Affairs Lena Hallengren (S).

“It has become a more widespread infection”

Before fall, the Swedish Public Health Agency started from a scenario in which they did not believe in a new wave without local cluster outbreaks. Something that even the government believed in.

This was wrong, it has turned into a second wave of infection across the country in principle. How did this affect our preparation for the fall corona wave?

– It has become a much stronger and faster spread of the infection in much of the country. But cluster infection is an approach that many countries have taken and which means that you see different regions affected differently and defeats them by testing and tracking the infection and hitting where the infection is and that is our ambition.

But was this preparation affected by this?

– The Swedish Public Health Agency believed in this scenario and we had no reason to make a different assessment. I guess no one has held back to any extent or in expanding testing activities.

Head of care: had acted differently

But the Public Health Agency’s assessment affected preparedness, according to several in the regions. They were preparing for another type of infection. In several regions, testing capacity has reached the ceiling and residents are struggling to get tested.

– Now we just fill and fill with staff to try and catch up. It is clear that if in August it had been said that there was a high probability of a very difficult second wave here in October, “make sure you are loaded to the teeth with personnel and sampling stations”, then we probably would have acted differently, says the Uppsala infection control manager. Fredrik Settergren to DN.

Lena Hallengren believes that the scenario has mostly meant that they are now working with the local councils designed for the infection situation in a certain region. But that all regions must constantly prepare for the worst.

– For everyone, it has been important to be prepared to receive a blow again. So it is on a much higher level, but you cannot assume that you are not affected. To prepare for the situation you had this spring, everyone has a fresh memory. We did not have a special level, but we would be prepared for new shoots, says Lena Hallengren.

The Swedish Public Health Agency has underestimated the pandemic and what it would look like in Sweden several times. Should they have considered a worst case scenario?

– They try to think of the most likely scenario, but they have to answer how they see it. They themselves say they are surprised that it took off so fast. But it is not because you did not want to prepare, but this is a virus that seems to surprise everyone who works with epidemics, as it is gaining speed again.

– Of course, it is easier with the results in hand to say what I should have done. I guess they make the best possible forecast based on the research and available facts.

Reduced national restrictions – stricter advice at local level

In late September, the restraining order on nursing homes was lifted. At the end of October, the government decided to increase the audience ceiling at events from 50 to 300. The day before, Uppsala received local advice due to the serious situation of the crown. In three weeks, 14 of the 21 regions have toughened local councils with the main message to residents to only socialize within the home.

Was it okay to ease the restrictions based on how it turned out?

– In a situation in which we have a low spread of infection, routines and routines of visits that are safe, it is not possible to say that despite them, the elderly should not be visited in a family environment. But it is obvious that we are now in a different situation where the spread of the infection is increasing.

– We had a favorable and positive evolution then, this has gone very fast. If you don’t know something is going to happen, you can’t restrict people’s freedom, mobility, and opportunity to do business for the good of the cause. As soon as we see that things are going in the wrong direction, we act.

Published: November 13, 2020 kl. 18.35