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There was never a slowly increasing spread of the infection with minor local outbreaks. How can the Public Health Agency be so wrong?
The public health authority thought the fall would be pretty quiet. The authority was wrong.
Instead, in a short time there was a widespread social spread of the coronavirus, with an increasing number of infected and sick as a result.
TT: How can the Public Health Agency be so wrong?
– Because the Swedish Public Health Agency, like everyone else, is guessing. We know very little about this virus. I also didn’t believe in any other waves this spring. I was wrong and many with me. Of course, you should be able to demand more of an authority than an individual in terms of forecasts, but I can still understand that even an authority can end up wrong, because it is extremely difficult to see the future, says Jonas F. Ludvigsson, Ph.D. at University Hospital. de Örebro and Professor of Medical Epidemiology at the Karolinska Institutet in Solna.
In the last pandemic, the swine flu in 2009, it was the opposite. Many believed in a second wave and in Sweden a higher proportion of the population was vaccinated than in almost any other country.
– Then there were many who in a way stood with long noses, because there was never another wave. And in hindsight, Sweden’s decision to be so active, to vaccinate so many people, received harsh criticism, says Jonas F. Ludvigsson.
Furthermore, it appears that the countries that were hit the hardest this spring are now as well. Like Great Britain, France, Spain, Belgium and Sweden.
– This despite the fact that several of these countries have taken extremely strong measures. In any case, it doesn’t seem to stop the infection. Belgium has roughly the same population as Sweden and has 1,500 patients in the intensive care unit at the moment, which is three times what Sweden had when it was at its worst this spring. This despite the fact that Belgium had strict restrictions, says Jonas F. Ludvigsson.
This, Ludvigsson believes, may be due to underlying factors that drive the spread of the infection, but which may not be affected by actions taken by authorities, in any case to a great extent.
TT: What could be the factors?
– I do not know. It’s probably a combination of different things. For example, how big are the cities of a country, how close we live, the proportion of people with an immigrant background and multigenerational housing, how many people collectively travel to work and go abroad, what infections usually affect the population, etc. There can be a wide range of, I guess, ten, fifteen factors where the actions we take can affect some of them. In that case, it is not so strange that the same countries are affected now than in the spring, given that no country has achieved herd immunity, since the underlying factors remain the same. That may be one explanation, says Jonas F. Ludvigsson.
TT: But Finland and Norway then?
– There is still much that separates these countries, from Sweden. Not least in terms of the areas of Sweden where the infection was established in early spring, where overcrowding is high. Such areas do not exist in Finland. Finland also has few non-European immigrants, many of whom in Sweden were affected at the beginning of the pandemic, and very few Norwegians go to the Alps, while there are areas in Sweden where many go to the Alps, says Jonas F. Ludvigsson. .
