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The fall of the crown has quadrupled in four weeks
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The coronavirus is spreading across much of the country and both hospital cases and deaths are on the rise again.
In four weeks, the number of new cases has quadrupled and if we fail to stop the infection, we may have reached half a million cases in December.
– If we don’t follow the advice, we could have a thousand dead by the New Year, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematics at Uppsala University.
Outbreaks of smaller local clusters breaking out in different parts of the country were the scenario the Public Health Agency believed the most in before fall. Instead, it has become a widespread spread of the infection in much of the country, as in many other European countries.
Last week, 18,500 new confirmed cases of corona were reported. We also had the highest death rates since July. All regions except one report a worrying increase in infection.
– If we fail to adhere to the recommendations, we will not be able to stop the infection. So we get a serious impact on health care and the risk of death and serious health consequences, the serious-minded Karin Tegmark Wisell said at Thursday’s press conference.
Photo: Claudio Bresciani / TT NEWS AGENCY
Matematikprofessorn Tom Britton.
Quadruple of cases in four weeks
Between weeks 41 and 44, the number of new cases per week went from 4,300 cases to 18,500 cases. That’s more than quadrupled in four weeks. So what do we have in front of us if we don’t follow the advice and recommendations and continue?
Tom Britton, a professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, did calculations for Sweden’s transmission and death rates early in the pandemic. According to their estimates, the number of newly infected may increase by several hundred thousand between November and December.
– If we don’t change our behavior, we can get up to half a million new cases from early November to mid-December, he says.
The more people are infected with the virus, the more people are at risk of becoming seriously ill, ending up in an intensive care unit, and, in the worst case, dying.
In models this spring, Britton predicted that Sweden could have between 6,000 and 14,000 deaths by the fall. This week we went from 6000.
But for the second pandemic wave, science and healthcare have fortunately learned more about the virus, which Britton says reduces mortality.
– We have developed better treatment methods and have improved the protection of the elderly and risk groups. A reasonable assessment is that the death rate is 0.2 percent now, compared to 0.5 percent this spring, he says.
Photo: Anders Wiklund / TT NYHETSBYRÅN
“If we can’t stick to the recommendations, we won’t be able to reduce the infection,” says Karin Tegmark Wisell.
Warning: 1000 deaths per new year
Mortality may be lower now, but in a scenario where the spread of infection continues to increase, the mortality rate is anything but low.
– About a thousand people can die until New Years if we don’t make any changes in our behavior now, says Tom Britton.
Ten regions have received stricter local councils that encourage residents to attend social events, simply socialize within their home, and refrain from visiting indoor public settings such as malls, shops, baths, and museums. But doctors in Uppsala and Stockholm tell Aftonbladet that it is not enough.
If the tips have had any decisive effect, it can be seen just over two weeks after they were presented. So, the incubation period for those who may have been infected before the council arrived, has expired.
– I believe and hope that we have hit the brakes now and that the spread of the infection is slowing down. But the number of hospitals and deaths will continue to rise for a few weeks because there is a slight delay, says Tom Britton.
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