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The Stockholm Stock Exchange opened at minus 1.5 percent on Wednesday. This after a real rise on Tuesday.
Among large companies, only Astra Zeneca showed a plus when the negotiation began.
However, after half an hour, the stock market had recovered and was just below the zero line.
Joakim Bornold, a savings economist at Söderberg & partners, saw positive tones in futures trading ahead of the European stock exchanges on Wednesday morning. This is after the Asian stock markets have strengthened.
Sour on the stock market
But after Trump’s threat in his speech from the White House this morning to take the vote to the Supreme Court, spirits fell slightly among investors.
But even if it was that time before we have an election result in the US, Bornold doesn’t think there will be any big fluctuations in the stock market.
– I don’t think it creates a stock market crash. But if social unrest arises in the United States, it is a different matter. So it can be tricky in the stock market.
The market hates uncertainty. More like a clear and distinct winner, then it doesn’t matter who wins.
Robert Bergqvist, SEB’s chief economist, is surprised that things have gone so well for the incumbent president overnight and for the optimism in the market tomorrow.
– It’s a much stronger Trump wind blowing over the United States than we thought, he tells Dagens industri.
Biden vs Trump: surprising stock market reaction
Bergqvist further says:
– I am surprised that equity markets are reacting so strongly and that Asian equity markets are also generally bullish.
According to the chief economist, it is not surprising that, for example, the tech sector highlights that Trump is leading in several key states, as some have feared that Joe Biden will squeeze the big tech companies.
– But I expected them to be negative in the stock market with Trump leadership reducing the likelihood that Biden’s stimulus package, which is large and expected to come out quickly, will become a reality, says Robert Bergqvist to Di .
However, according to him, it may be that the market knows that Trump sees the stock market as a measure of success and that he will not follow a policy that causes it to collapse.
Many believed in a clear victory for Biden
On Election Day, the stock markets rose and the reason was that many believed in a clear victory for Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden.
Regardless of how the election ends, we could already say early in the evening that no such victory will come.
– When Trump appeared to be doing unexpectedly well in several key states, the semesters were dampened, precisely so that it could be a uniform and “unclear” result. But now it seems that Trump’s victory could be big, and then we return to the importance of a clear winner, says Frida Bratt on Nordnet.
Many votes remain to be counted in key states, including important postal votes where Democrats are seen as having the most to collect.
– So the whole thing is still uncertain. But there is a risk / possibility that Trump will declare himself the winner at an early stage.
Trump’s victory strengthens oil companies
Another crucial issue for the market is the election to the Senate.
– If Trump wins but the Democrats take the Senate, it means a lot of uncertainty. It will frustrate Trump, increasing the risk that he will go even further in his aggressive unpredictability under the presidency. It could, for example, take an even more hostile tone towards China, but also towards Europe, says Frida Bratt.
If Trump wins clearly and the Senate wins, it will mean rising stock markets with a clear winner.
Other companies that will rush to Trump’s victory are those related to oil, which are bolstered by the fact that Biden’s green transition is on hold.
– It is possible that drugs and banking are also exhaling because Trump is less willing to regulate these sectors. We can expect a negative reaction from renewable energy companies, says Bratt.
He also predicts that a clear victory for Trump means relief for the tech industry.
Annika Winsth: Stronger Stock Market
Annika Winsth, Nordea’s chief economist, tells Expressen:
– A lengthy process is not good and can create uncertainty; Above all, a well-adjusted stimulus package is essential. The result in the Senate will be important.
She says a lot speaks to a stronger, short-term stock market.
– Trump lowers taxes and benefits mainly American companies. Global stocks are not receiving the same stimulus, although they will also learn to rise in the short term. In the long run, it is not a fact. Long-term changes that improve the fabric of the United States are then of greater importance.
