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Then the corona virus hits the economy
A new corona wave is sweeping through Europe and many countries have responded with new closures.
However, economists do not expect a new sharp drop in GDP as in the spring.
Mikael Björk
Corona infection spreads fast, both in countries that were already hit hard this spring, such as Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the UK, and in countries that have done relatively well, such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany.
Nordea’s chief economist, Annika Winsth, says forecasters have already taken into account the increased spread of the infection during the fall, when it gets cold again and we hang out inside.
“It is possible that the spread of the infection is going faster than expected in Europe, which means that politicians are introducing new restrictions.” So far, the death toll in Europe is clearly lower than in the spring, which to some extent also applies to the burden of health care. At the same time, those who get sick seem to receive better care and cope better with the situation, ”he says.
Annika Winsth expects more restrictions, but not as severe as last spring.
“So, in principle, the economies of the whole world were closed at the same time. Now the Chinese economy is pulling. World trade has recovered two-thirds of the fall of this spring. It helps Germany, and Germany is important for Europe.”
This means that the recovery continues.
“I usually describe it as the switch that went off this spring, but after a while a dimmer came on. It can be pulled up and down, but it still energizes the economy, “says Annika Winsth.
During the second quarter, the GDP of the EU countries fell by 11.4 percent. Then it rallied 12.1 percent in the third quarter, according to statistics released by the European body Eurostat on Friday.
“During the fourth quarter, the recovery is expected to be slower, partly due to higher comparative figures and partly due to new restrictions due to the further spread of the infection,” says Annika Winsth.
Still, it is going in the right direction, even if it slows down in the future.
“It is very important to take into account the latest statistics, which indicate recovery. It is not good to paint too dark a picture. This means that companies do an incorrect analysis of employment and investments,” says Annika Winsth.
Mattias Sundling, Danske Bank’s chief economist, also sees a continued recovery in the European economy despite rising infections and closures.
It is largely ‘blocking light’. Schools remain open, as are shops and workplaces. Factories close. Of course, there are curfews in many places, but not if you go to work or go to the store. “
In addition, state aid acts as an airbag for consumption, an important engine of the economy.
“The savings rate keeps increasing. Households have accumulated savings, but they have little opportunity to get rid of the money, ”says Mattias Sundling.
