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WILMINGTON, DELAWARE. A president who declares himself the winner prematurely.
A truly even result in which both sides attempt to nullify votes in a protracted legal battle.
It’s the worst case scenario that could end in a perfect storm in which extreme supporters on both sides turn to violence.
In a direct question yesterday, Trump denied the information that he plans to declare himself the winner even though not all the votes are counted and he has not yet reached the required 270 electoral votes.
But other sources within the Republican Party say they will be very aggressive on election night in determining who won.
It may be so:
More Republicans than Democrats will vote on Election Day.
This is because Democrats are generally more concerned with becoming infected with corona and therefore voting by mail. Republicans are less afraid of covid and prefer to vote on election day. Especially since Donald Trump has in part condemned postal votes as open to cheating.
Photo: AFTONBLADET
Trump is likely to lead the vote tonight.
In most states, it is the direct votes that are counted first and therefore those that are broadcast first on television channels.
Several major states have rules that prohibit the counting of votes by mail or even opening before Election Day. This means that, for example, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will likely not be able to report a final result on Election Night.
However, it is not unlikely that Trump will lead the vote count before the mail-in votes are counted and take it as an indication or pretext to declare himself the winner. Especially if Florida and North Carolina win, who will likely report a final result on election night.
Don’t count all the votes
Trump has already said publicly that no vote that is not counted on Election Day should be included in the final result.
This is not something the president can decide on, but when it undermines confidence in the electoral process, it increases the risk that his own supporters will use force in an attempt to secure their victory.
We have already seen such trends.
The other day, Joe Biden’s campaign bus in Texas was surrounded by Trump supporters in vans and on the road. They forced the bus to slow down. Those on the bus (Biden was not present) considered the situation so threatening that they called 911, the equivalent of 112.
President Trump refuses to condemn the action of the supporters. He doesn’t think they did anything wrong. Instead, he encouraged similar actions at one of his election rallies. It does not mean anything that can reduce the enthusiasm of supporters to go to vote.
Photo: AP TT NEWS AGENCY
Joe Biden appears to have a sure advantage, but there are also many signs that it will be an even battle.
This is exactly what worries many. That the president in his own senior leadership is behind threats and gangster methods in an election that is supposed to be democratic.
A super-even electoral result increases the risk of disputes and that the result lingers. At the same time, a consistent outcome is the most likely, although Biden appears to be leading the way in opinion polls, even in some wave-master states.
Does not leave voluntarily
Few believe that Donald Trump will willingly admit defeat unless Biden scores an elimination victory. In all other situations, Trump will question the outcome of a loss. You’ve already said that the only way you can lose is if the opposing side cheats.
Thus, he has prepared the ground for a legal battle where his army of lawyers will appeal for all votes to be included in the result.
Trump has an advantage here. If in the end it is the Supreme Court that decides the elections, it now has a conservative majority of 6-3 in the court.
In Texas, Republicans have already tried to have 129,000 votes rejected in a predominantly Democratic area, arguing that drive-in movies were allowed in that constituency to prevent the spread of the infection. The election officials have received the votes so everything has gone well, but the Republicans question the method. So far, the court rulings have been against them, but they have appealed.
Photo: Jim Cole / AP TT NEWS AGENCY
Hillary Clinton received three million more votes than Donald Trump, but still lost the election.
We can see similar lawsuits regarding controversial votes and mistakes made in all 12-13 wavemaster states. It is the states that are important to win to become president. The rest of the states know in advance if it is Trump or Biden who will win.
Biden will surely win in the total number of votes.
Experts speak of a possible margin of five million votes. Hillary Clinton received three million more votes in 2016 than Trump, but because she won the normally democratic states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with a total of fewer than 80,000 votes, she became president.
Chew
If such a scenario repeats itself but Biden wins “the popular vote” by a greater margin than Hillary, his supporters will question Trump’s legitimacy.
Especially since most Democrats are unprepared for a Trump victory after seeing their candidate lead almost every opinion poll so far.
Even on the left wing, there are extreme groups that may turn to violence in an attempt to stop a narrow Trump victory.
Between March and September, Americans bought more than 15 million firearms.
As Trump said in the first presidential election debate of the white power group Proud Boys.
– Back up and wait.
If ever they and other groups are on high alert, it is now.
But after all, the majority of American voters are not violent. They want a fair and equitable election. Like Trump supporter Mary Moran, whom I met at one of the president’s last election rallies.
– If Biden wins, it’s just a matter of chewing it up and coming back in four years.
However, there is hope that he does not have to be violent.
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