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Since the last election debate last week, fracking, gas and oil have been at the center of Trump’s attacks on Biden. How has it affected the electoral campaign?
This can be a fatal problem, especially in those states where these fossil fuels are of great importance to employment and the economy. Several of these are surge protection states at the same time, especially Pennsylvania and Ohio. The issue has been a touchy one for Democrats, who on the one hand want to appear climate conscious, on the other they want to safeguard jobs in the rust belt of the Midwest. For a long time, Biden managed to stay on both sides, but at the end of the election debate, he probably made a serious mistake. When Trump asked him if Biden intended to shut down the oil industry, he replied, “I would move out of the oil industry, yes … because the oil industry pollutes significantly.”
Trump cut off immediately: “What Joe says is that he will destroy the oil industry … will he remember Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania? Oklahoma? Ohio?
Trump instinctively understood what Biden seemed not to realize: that such a response risks eroding the former vice president’s support among white workers, a group that has so far had some success in claiming Trump. It is true that Biden was quick to try to repair his statement, declaring that he did not want to ban oil production and fracking at all, but only subsidies to the fossil energy industry. But the damage was done, and Biden’s oil statement gave Trump a free chance to portray Biden as an enemy of the workers and as a “globalist” who wants to take down the oil industry.
How important is Pennsylvania to the outcome of the election?
– According to most reviewers, perhaps the most crucial. That is why both Biden and Trump are campaigning there so intensely in the final sprint of the election campaign. Trump recently declared at a campaign rally in Allentown in the eastern part of the state: “If we win Pennsylvania, we win everything.” With less than a week to go before the election, Biden leads national polls on average for the entire United States by a fairly reassuring margin, between 7 and 8 percent.
But it is not at all what decides who will be the next president of the United States, but rather the winner is the one who wins enough states (and therefore electoral votes). And there the states that vacillate between the two candidates play a crucial role. In the 2016 election, Trump narrowly beat Hillary Clinton in the traditionally democratic states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, thus surpassing the 270 electoral votes required to become president. If Pennsylvania wins again, all other things being equal, another medium-sized wave master state, or two small ones, wins to get a majority in the Electoral College. And then it will be Trump who takes the oath of office on January 20 of next year.
How is the situation of public opinion in Pennsylvania?
– Two weeks ago, Biden led Trump by 7.4 percent in the average number of polls RealClearPolitics publishes daily. But with the election a week away, this lead had been halved to 3.8 percent. The figure is not entirely certain, but the trend is clear; Biden has lost to Trump after the recent election debate, not just in Pennsylvania but another big and important one. state of oscillation like Florida, which may have affected the debate on oil and fracking. This means that Trump could catch up with Biden last week, the same way he did with Clinton four years ago. If you haven’t already.
Read more: Trump’s plan: fracking will decide the US elections
