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► North Carolina (15 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, Biden has a 65 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 35 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 48.8 percent of the votes, while 47.6 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 1.2 percentage points for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 3.1 million.
► Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has an 89 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 11 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 49.8 percent of the votes, while 44.3 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 5.5 percentage points for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 1.3 million.
► Iowa (6 electoral votes): By FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, he’s completely even among the candidates – Biden has a 50 percent chance of winning and so does Trump. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 47.2 percent of the vote, while 46.4 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a 0.8 percentage point lead for Biden.
Number of early voting so far: Approximately 751,000.
► Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has an 85 percent chance of winning compared to 15 percent for Trump. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 49.8 percent of the vote, while 45.0 percent is expected to vote for Trump, a total 4.8 percentage point lead for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: approximately 1.7 million.
► Minnesota (10 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has a 92 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 8 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 48.0 percent of the votes, while 42.0 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a total 6.0 percentage point lead for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 1.1 million.
► Nevada (6 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has a 91 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 9 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 49.0 percent of the vote, while 43.8 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 5.2 percentage points for Biden.
Number of early voting so far: Approximately 740,000.
► Florida (29 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, Biden has a 66 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 34 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 49.0 percent of the votes, while 47.2 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a total 1.8 percentage point lead for Biden.
Number of early voting so far: Approximately 6 million.
► Michigan (16 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, Biden has a 94 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 6 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 50.6 percent of the vote, while 41.6 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a total advantage of 9.0 percentage points for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 2.1 million.
► Ohio (18 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has a 42 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 58 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 46.2 percent of the vote, while 46.8 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 0.6 percentage points for Trump.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 2.1 million.
Wavemaster potential states:
► Texas (38 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight calculations, Biden has a 33 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 67 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 45.4 percent of the vote, while 48.6 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 3.2 percentage points for Trump.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 7.3 million.
► Georgia (16 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, Biden has a 46 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 54 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 46.8 percent of the vote, while 47.2 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a lead of a total of 0.4 percentage points for Trump.
Number of votes anticipated so far: Approximately 2.7 million.
► Arizona (11 electoral votes): According to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations, Biden has a 66 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 34 percent. In the RealClearPolitics compilation, Biden is expected to receive 48.8 percent of the votes, while 46.4 percent are expected to vote for Trump, a total advantage of 2.4 percentage points for Biden.
Number of votes anticipated so far: approximately 1.6 million.
Källa: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, US Elections Project.
