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Taxes
The clearest economic difference between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden is fiscal policy. These are the experts SVT has spoken to to agree.
– The biggest absolute difference is the tax policy in which Biden wants to increase both corporate tax and income tax and use the funds to invest in welfare. Healthcare, education and childcare, says Handelsbanken economist Johanna Högfeldt, continuing:
– Trump wants to keep taxes low and possibly lower them further.
Danske Bank Chief Economist Michael Grahn says who the winners and the losers are:
“The middle class is more favored by a Biden victory, while high-income individuals and the business community are more favored by a Trump victory,” he says.
The stock market
Most experts believe that the stock market could be pleasantly surprised if Donald Trump takes home a clear victory in the presidential election. Given that Joe Biden leads in many polls, a win for him wouldn’t be that surprising and the backlash is probably not that great.
– If Trump wins the elections, I think we will get a rebound, or at least a stable development at high levels. If Biden wins, there is a risk of disappointment in the short term because he will raise taxes, says Annika Winsth, Nordea’s chief economist.
Johanna Högfeldt, an economist at Handelsbanken, is on a similar path.
– Trump’s tax policy with reduced corporate taxes has been very favorable for the stock market and then Biden’s proposal with higher taxes is expected to be negative for the stock market.
From a stock market perspective, the worst possible outcome would be a very even electoral result in which there will be a fight for the presidency after the elections.
– Probably the worst for the market in general. Create an uncertainty that you absolutely want to get away from, says Annika Winsth.
Swedish economy
Sweden is a small open economy that relies heavily on global trade and cooperation.
– From that aspect, it is probably an advantage if Biden wins in the sense that he prefers to cooperate with Europe rather than enter into conflict, says Annika Winsth.
– The effect for Sweden comes directly from foreign trade and Trump’s protectionist trade policy is not positive for, for example, the Swedish auto industry. So from a business perspective, Biden is better for Sweden, says Johanna Högfeldt in Handelsbanken and continues:
– Furthermore, Biden’s environmental policy and investments in these issues can benefit Swedish companies.
Commercial policy
Regardless of who wins, the president of the United States is likely to take a relatively hard line against China. Trump threatens additional tariffs, while Biden wants to create an alliance where countries cooperate with China.
– The conflict in China will last both. Americans strongly disagree, but agree that China is an enemy. On the other hand, the tone can be much softer from Biden, says Annika Winsth.
However, the presidential candidates have different attitudes towards trade with Europe.
Trump also wants to increase tariffs on European companies, so there is an ongoing dispute, says Michael Grahn at Danske Bank.
– My assessment is that Trump will also seek a conflict with Europe and put pressure on the automobile industry, for example, while Biden wants cooperation with Europe, says Annika Winsth.
Energy policy
Here, the differences between Trump and Biden are great.
– Trump has tried to defend the American energy sector, that is, oil and gas, while Biden is significantly more in favor of green investments, says Annika Winsth.
