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– Today we see how deserts are spreading across much of Mongolia, northwestern China and Tibet. This is very concerning, because we know how ecosystems collapsed before, says Natasha Barbolini, a researcher in paleoecology at Stockholm University.
Together with colleagues in the Netherlands, among others, he has analyzed fossil pollen and linked the findings with climate data and previous studies of the animal world. In this way, they have created a picture of how ecosystems have changed in this region over the last 43 million years. The study is published in Science Advances.
Growing drought
Then 43 million years ago, the region was characterized by a lively flora and fauna. It was in the middle of the geological Eocene. But 34 million years ago, the climate changed abruptly, for reasons that are not yet completely clear. Among other things, ice began to grow in Antarctica.
– It was an ecological disaster in this area, with acute desertification and a dramatic reduction in the number of species of both plants and animals. Larger mammals were replaced by small rodents, says Natasha Barbolini.
TT: But why do you draw parallels with current climate change? Do they lead instead to the temperature rising?
– The crucial similarity is the drought. This area is about to become one of the hottest and driest places on earth now that the climate is changing and it has devastating consequences because ecosystems are already heavily affected by water scarcity, says Natasha Barbolini.
– Even small changes can cause the system to topple over. And once it has started, desertification can last for millions of years, he adds.
When the vegetation decreases, a vicious spiral occurs. This leads to less humidity in the landscape, which further accelerates desertification.
Try irrigation
According to the researchers’ study, ecosystems gradually recovered after the catastrophe 34 million years ago, to once again become areas of rich and unique ecological diversity. But it took millions of years, and the recovery took place in a way that surprised the researchers.
– What surprised us about our study is that so many plants more or less disappeared from the area, never to recover. Therefore, total extinction is not required to create permanent changes in an ecosystem, says Natasha Barbolini.
TT: Is there a way to stop the transformation in desert areas?
– There have been many attempts at irrigation and tree planting, but deserts are still expanding at a high rate. It’s likely the only way to stop climate change, says Natasha Barbolini.
