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Given what happened in the last presidential election, it is completely understandable that no one wants to say out loud what opinion polls really show.
That’s why I do it.
Most point to a landslide victory for Biden.
But there are at least five reasons why Trump may turn to victory.
Put a Trump supporter in the face of the fact that the president is clearly down in all opinion polls and you get a mocking laugh in response followed by the rhetorical question “well, how correct were you last time?”
The misleading opinion polls from the 2016 election cast a dark shadow over this year’s election. No one really dares to trust them.
What many forget is that the polls that predicted the victory of Democrat Hillary Clinton were certainly wrong, but not so totally wrong that there really is reason to throw this year’s opinion polls in the trash.
Trump won some generally democratic states by an extremely small margin and thus became president despite the fact that Hillary Clinton had nearly three million more votes overall. It is a consequence of the American electoral system where the winner takes all the so-called electoral votes in most states.
It would have been enough that fewer than 100,000 Trumps in three states went to Clinton, and she would have become president.
With less than a month to go to the election, virtually every poll shows Joe Biden leading the way. After the first debate with Trump, that advantage has increased by an average of 1.5 percentage points. Biden’s leadership today in national polls, nearly ten percentage points, is higher than Hillary’s at the same time in 2016.
Additionally, Biden leads in most of the key states, those that alternately vote Republican or Democratic. On average, almost five percentage points.
Key states
Biden clearly leads in Florida, which Trump won in 2016. He leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump won by a narrow margin in the last election. At the same time, the only key state really leaning toward Trump is Texas.
The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from the measurements is that Biden, if there were elections today, would likely take home a landslide victory.
Photo: Paul Vernon / TT NEWS AGENCY
The site FiveThirtyEight (= the number of electoral votes in the presidential election) with the respected pollster Nate Silver at the helm has simulated, using available data, the presidential election 40,000 times. On average, Biden wins 83 times out of a hundred. And it does so by a much larger margin than Trump.
In normal cases, most experts would have considered that the choice was already decided.
But then there were the 2016 ones and Donald Trump.
It has been counted countless times and has still been spared all adversities, so it would be a misdemeanor to register its loss now.
Trump is in a good position, but he may, like last time, turn the tide. At the time, many insecure voters decided at the last minute to cast their vote for the real estate billionaire. This time around, the insecure voters are far fewer, but Trump has other trump cards.
Surprise
He is already president
It is very unusual for an elected incumbent to lose. In modern times, this has only happened once, when George Bush the Elder lost to Bill Clinton in 1992. The White House campaign offers many benefits. Trump gets much more attention than Joe Biden.
The Challenger
Joe Biden is not a formidable candidate. He is about to be too old. Their health and intellectual capacity are questioned. Many are voting against Trump instead of Biden.
If Trump can convince these voters that he is a better option after all, he has a chance.
Opinion polls
Like I said, they were wrong last time. This time they may be even more wrong, although history rarely repeats itself.
Another surprise
The space for the October surprise call that usually appears in every election already feels mortgaged with the infection of Trump’s crown and the death of Judge Ginsburg. but it cannot be ruled out that more will come. What happens, for example, if Joe Biden falls ill with covid?
After all, there are just over three weeks left until Election Day.
The economy is spinning
After a summer in which 30 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits, the US economy is showing clear signs of recovery. Unemployment has fallen dramatically from the top. If Trump can convince voters that prosperity is waiting around the corner, the momentum may change.
Having recently watched the last Aston Villa beat champion Liverpool 7-2 in the top British soccer league, I feel like anything can happen even in American politics.
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