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As expected, there were no sanctions against Turkey. After the extraordinary EU summit on Thursday night, it became clear that Greece and Cyprus will have to settle for a subtle warning to Turkey. Punishments are only at hand if Turkey’s provocations in the Mediterranean do not end.
Instead, Brussels expects a “positive agenda” and attracts with an expanded customs union and more trade with Turkey. With thoughts on Turkey’s economic crisis, it is certainly a welcome gesture in Ankara, where the EU is the most important trading partner.
The EU also promises better conditions in migration cooperation, a bit confusing if it means more money than Turkey demands.
The ball is in Erdogan’s court
All in all, a rather accommodating counteroffer to Ankara’s list of demands before the meeting, despite the fact that visa-free travel for Turkish nationals was ignored.
So far, the EU proposal has been met with silence in Turkey, which could perhaps be interpreted as meaning that the Turkish government is not immediately hostile in any case.
The ball is now in President Erdogan’s court. The question is whether this is enough to allow him to breathe his last gasp in the search for gas in areas of the eastern Mediterranean, to which Greece and Cyprus believe they belong.
The question is also how Ankara reacts to the very subtle threats of sanctions. The Turkish government is clearly resentful of its relationship with the EU and has previously reacted with strong anger to all EU comments on the imposition of sanctions.
There is a risk that even subtle threats can increase the will to fight. This is most evident in the strained relationship with French President Macron, who has become a new object of hatred in Turkey.
France is challenging Turkey’s military ambitions not only in the Mediterranean, but also in Syria, Libya and, more recently, in the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Disdainfully against the EU
But during the EU summit, Angela Merkel still made the firm line that dialogue is the best way forward with Turkey.
Many critics of the EU say there is something ridiculous about Brussels’ inability to use tough foreign policy measures. A parody account on Twitter that takes note of this is “Is the EU concerned?” which draws attention to the fact that the EU constantly repeats how “deeply concerned” and “very concerned” they are in regularly repeated word choices.
From the Turkish side, there is often a similar tone of contempt about the flatness of the EU, despite the fact that the Ankara government at the same time wants to beat its chest when it shook hands and negotiated a deal.
At the same time, the NATO defense alliance claims that a mechanism has now been established between the two member states, Turkey and Greece, to prevent military incidents.
I guess it is a more effective check on Ankara than the EU appeals. If I get to know the Turkish Government correctly, the dispute in the Mediterranean will be tempered or perhaps stopped altogether for the time being.
But the risk is probably great that Ankara is already making plans on how they can kick Brussels next time to gain advantage in the bargaining game in the creaky cooperation pact between the EU and Turkey.
