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Fears, or hopes, of a government crisis are violently exaggerated.
It is foolish to expect that, at least in the near future. The reason is not just one, but several.
The night before Thursday, negotiations between LO, private salaried employees of PTK and employers of the Swedish Business Confederation on a new main agreement fell through. The sensitive issue of changes to the Employment Protection Law, Las, has been the subject of attention.
As a result of the accident I have concerns, or in some cases hope, if a government crisis has been aired. I think currently it’s very incredible and almost a sign of insanity.
The first possibility of a government crisis is if the Left Party fulfills its ambition to overthrow the government if it proposes changes to Las. It should not change, according to V. Sjöstedt repeated his threats on Thursday, but now called for demands for clear information from the government and Stefan Löfven, although it is not clear when
In that case, it applies to Jonas Sjöstedt and his party comrades the first to gather enough votes to demand a vote of no confidence in the Riksdag.
To obtain a vote in the place it is necessary that 35 members of the Riksdag demand it. The Left Party has 27 and therefore must already have the assistance of another party at this stage.
But to vote against the government, 175 members are required to vote against. It will probably be difficult to achieve if nothing unforeseen happens. Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has already said he doesn’t support the idea even if he wants to switch to Las.
It should be added that you must have a plan of what will happen if the government is eliminated. Who will be the prime minister instead of Stefan Löfven? The Left Party can hardly want Ulf Kristersson (M) to succeed it.
Conclusion: It seems unlikely.
Another reason for a government crisis could be that the government and its allies, the Center Party and the Liberals, do not agree on what the proposal for a new employment protection law should look like.
According to the January agreement between The two government parties, C and L, will modernize labor legislation. The intention is “to give flexibility to companies and protect the individual employee against arbitrary dismissal.” But the equilibrium in the labor market, exactly what is meant by that, must not be disturbed.
That crisis, if it arises, is in that case very far away.
An investigation that has shed light on the subject it was handed over to the government in June and is in consultation until October 26. Later, it will be prepared, as it is called, in the Government Offices. The opinions of the advisory bodies will be taken into account, with the four parties involved agreeing. If it takes six months or more, you won’t be the least bit surprised.
The drive to agree is also great. Bourgeois cooperation is in shambles, C and L have no other form of influence than Stefan Löfven.
So far, they can also be quite satisfied with the cooperation with the Social Democrats. They have had a greater impact on their own policies than within the Alliance.
So why does Annie Lööf (C) I Nyamko Sabuni (L), or for that matter Stefan Löfven, break the collaboration? The reasons are few.
Conclusion: A government crisis is far away, if it becomes relevant.
A third reason is that the ruling quartet of politics; S, MP, L and C are willing to give the social partners more time to agree on their side.
Unions and employers have proposed the September 30 deadline for their efforts to agree, among other things, to new priority rules. This year’s postponed contract negotiations are set to begin on October 1 and they believe they don’t have time for a war on two fronts.
Labor Minister Eva Nordmark (S) urges the parties to “take over again,” C and L say the parties have at least a few more weeks to agree after occasionally discussing the issue for three years.
Because they were involved the social partners jointly state that they have come a long way, that it may be a possible way forward. Politicians have said that they prefer parties to solve this problem and that only if parties do not do so should the law be changed. Otherwise, the agreement of the parties can take over.
Conclusion: Then there will not be a government crisis either. The Riksdag and the parties are, so to speak, voluntarily marginalized.
Even more water will flow underneath the bridges before this infected and loaded issue has been triggered. But this is what the situation looks like right now, in my opinion.
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