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The “end” of the Corona pandemic, when the World Health Organization, WHO, assesses that the international emergency has ended, is a long way off, according to Swedish experts.
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell tells DN that it will likely happen in the fall of 2021 at the earliest.
– If next year will be a quiet summer and you go into autumn without major outbreaks, then perhaps WHO feels so confident that they can put this aside.
Giesecke: “It takes years”
Tegnell’s representative, Johan Giesecke, is even more cautious.
– It takes a long time, I think years. I can’t say how many, but it’s not an idea to count months, Giesecke tells DN.
Giesecke is vice president of STAG-IH (“Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Risks”), a group of experts within WHO whose task is to develop strategies on how the organization should manage various viruses and infection risks, such as coronavirus.
He tells the newspaper that STAG-IH “has not discussed [slutet på pandemin] absolutely.
– We are just beginning.
Rocklöv: “Not at the moment”
Joacim Rocklöv, a professor of epidemiology and public health at Umeå University, says he agrees with Giesecke and Tegnell that it may be at least a year before the WHO eliminates the pandemic.
– It will not fly in the current situation, he says.
– Pandemics are also defined by a kind of relative impact on how much more mortality and morbidity have increased because the spread is so great.
– Currently there are three ways in which this can happen, and one is that they give us vaccines that protect us, the other is that a large part of the population becomes immune so that we protect ourselves and the third is that the virus changes. They can be quite long periods.
He says that since it looks like vaccines may be available next year, “after that, the situation may change.”
“International threat”
The WHO declared that covid-19 was an “international threat to human health” on January 30 of this year.
Such a statement means that the WHO assesses that there is a risk of international spread of an infection and that, therefore, coordinated action is necessary.
The Swedish Public Health Agency announced Wednesday that three more people were reported to have died from COVID-19 in Sweden.
In the country, a total of 92,863 cases of covid-19 have been confirmed, of which 5,893 have died so far.
“International threats to human health”
The WHO has declared the following outbreaks as an international threat to human health:
Influensapandemi A (H1N1): April 25, 2009 – August 10, 2010
Polio: May 5, 2014 – ongoing
Ebola: August 8, 2014 – March 29, 2016
Date: February 1, 2016 – November 18, 2016
Ebola Democratic Republic of the Congo: July 17, 2019 – June 26, 2020
covid-19: January 30, 2020 – ongoing
Source: Swedish Public Health Agency
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