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The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia can probably be considered one of the most forgotten in the world. A low-intensity war of positions with a frozen front and a diplomatic stalemate. From time to time minor fights break out, which are at best found with advertisements in the newspapers.
But suddenly the stalemate has loosened with violent force. In ongoing battles, there is a new dimension that can redesign the playing field altogether. Turkey’s growing military ambitions could trigger a spiral of violence where the scene of horror is a full-scale great-power war with Russia on the opposite side.
More threatening tone
Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan is far from new. The countries are very close to each other, which is often expressed by the motto “one people, two states”. The issue particularly involves Turkish nationalists. In Istanbul, the caravan horns and the motto “Karabakh is ours” have kept me awake for the past few nights.
However, since the conflict broke out in connection with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ankara’s position has been the same as President Erdogan now repeats: that Armenia must hand over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan.
But the tone has taken on a whole new tone of menacing intransigence. As Turkey in recent years has become militarily involved in countries such as Syria, Iraq and Libya, Erdogan’s rhetoric does not only serve as moral support for a fraternal people. It is a clear sign that Ankara is ready to back the word with all its military strength.
Bayraktar, a Turkish manufacturer of advanced combat drones, has shared videos on Twitter with bomb attacks on Armenian targets.
Turkey is also said to be recruiting Syrian mercenaries to fight on the side of Azerbaijan. The whole matter is denied by the Azerbaijani government, but it is backed by credible testimonies from Reuters and The Guardian.
Open the third front
Turkish drones and Syrian mercenaries are a well-proven recipe that turned the tide of the war in Libya, where Ankara’s military might oppose Russia’s interests, just like in the Syrian war. The fighting in the Caucasus means that Turkey opens a third front on the opposite side of Russia, which is the closest to Armenia.
It is a bit contradictory that Turkey and Russia have become closer in recent years. But so far, armed conflicts have not prevented Erdogan and Putin from having a good, if not loving relationship, which can be seen as hopeful for possible relaxation in the Caucasus.
Russia probably sees Turkey as a more manageable counterpart, preferable to the United States, which seems completely disinterested in getting involved in the conflict in the Caucasus.
For Erdogan and Turkey, this is not just a nationalist question of the heart. It is also an opportunity to tense the military muscles. The local audience has more to think about than the catastrophic economy. The outside world is receiving an ominous display from Turkey’s violent capital, a threatening signal to anyone who stands up to President Erdogan’s interests in the region.
