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Of: TT
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Historically high audience figures are predicted, but the number of voters who are truly convinced to support a candidate is marginal.
Tonight, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and Republican President Donald Trump collide in the first televised debate of the election campaign.
– The pressure is maximum on Joe Biden, he is the one who has the most to lose, says Mitch McKinney, professor of political science at the University of Missouri and expert in political debates.
Presidential candidates from the two major parties meet for a verbal duel is a tradition in the United States, ever since the young Democrat John F. Kennedy met Republican Richard Nixon in the 1960s box.
Nixon declined to debate thereafter, but since the 1970s, they have been more or less binding on the White House. And for voters, debates are a unique opportunity to compare candidates.
– There they are next to each other, without their assistants or teleprompts, and they are forced to answer questions. Political advertising and convention speeches will be more credible to voters, McKinney says in a digital briefing for journalists.
A small percentage
In general, the tone between candidates is usually civilized, but that changed to Donald Trump four years ago when he launched a personal attack on his then opponent Hillary Clinton. The first debate in 2016 had record audience figures when as many as 84 million turned on the television. Similar interest is anticipated this year.
– I look forward to a series of memorable discussions, says McKinney.
Candidates know full well that voters evaluate both their experience and character, and that their appearance can have a major impact on the outcome of the election, just as in the case of Nixon. But the number of voters who are truly impressionable is small, McKinney notes.
– 90-95 percent of voters have already decided who they will vote for. And of the five percent that remain, perhaps half make decisions about how they should vote based on debates, he says.
– However, those who watch debates are more likely to vote than others, our research shows.
Loving style
So what can you expect from the debate tonight? McKinney predicts that Donald Trump will remain belligerent and conflict-oriented. The president has made a number of statements, including the claim that Biden needs to take drugs to cope with the debate and keep calling him “Sleepy Joe.”
– In a time of covid and anxiety, Biden has developed a more calm, affectionate and possibly reserved style. It works great in meetings with voters, but the question is whether Trump will overshadow it on the stage of debate, says McKinney.
– Viewers know Donald Trump is tough. Biden is the one with the most to lose.
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