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Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden will meet tonight for the first presidential debate.
American presidential election duels on television are often highly publicized, but they rarely play a particularly important role in the outcome of the election.
But this time around, there are five reasons why the debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden could be decisive for who sits in the White House for the next four years.
In the 2012 election, Barack Obama made a very soft figure against challenger Mitt Romney in the first televised debate. But in the end, it didn’t matter. He was simply re-elected.
In the 2016 election, Trump was deemed to have acted threateningly against Hillary Clinton, but he was elected anyway.
The outcome of television debates is often overestimated. But this year, there are several reasons why they may become more important.
✓ Fight for a few but vital voters
The majority of voters have already decided in the United States, which is highly polarized. It doesn’t matter what Trump or Biden say. These voters are not disturbed. But there is a small group of voters that has not yet been decided. They decide who is victorious in the battle. For them, the debate can be what turns in one direction or another.
✓ This year’s election campaign is unique
Due to the crown pandemic, neither party has been able to hold physical party conferences that are often important in providing energy in the election campaign. Only one of the candidates, Donald Trump, is doing anything that even looks like a normal election campaign. Joe Biden has been quarantined in his basement all summer. Now he has started to travel the country on a limited basis, but he never has more than 50 people at his election rallies.
This has made him appear much less on television than Trump and has received much less attention. The debates will be your best chance to reach the American people.
In the absence of a regular election campaign, debates will also be important to Trump because many states have crowd restrictions, which means he can’t hold his large gatherings indoors with 10,000-20,000 participants.
✓ Joe Biden’s health
At nearly 78 years old, Biden is the oldest presidential candidate in American history. He’s only four years older than Trump, but he doesn’t feel as vital at all. Biden must prove that there is nothing in the evil epithet of President Sleepy Joe.
The nickname has become effective because many people wonder what the general condition of Biden is like. Can you do the job as president? During the primary elections, he left an impression of power shortage and, at times, absent. His speech is often a bit fuzzy. He has provided a breeding ground for malicious rumors that he was insane.
Trump claims that Biden doped himself in recent debates against Bernie Sanders when he did better and has demanded that both be examined before the first debate.
The president’s tactic will be to flag Biden as unsuitable for the job. Even those who don’t like Trump should leave television and feel that he is still a better alternative than Biden.
✓ Almost no audience
Television debates are usually packed with audiences. But now only a small crown-assured crowd will be present due to the pandemic. Donald Trump does not like silence. Usually it draws energy from the audience. The nearly empty TV studio should be something that benefits Biden.
✓ October surprise – in September
In US electoral movements, the “October surprise” is a concept. An unexpected event that could give a boost to the elections. This year, it came as early as September with the New York Times revelation of Trump’s remarks, which, unlike previous presidential candidates, he refused to publish.
That Trump paid so little in taxes and that he’s not the successful businessman he pretends to be gives Biden a free first service in the debate.
Tonight’s default discussion topics, including the corona pandemic, the economy, and racism, are areas where Trump is seen to have fared worst in the spring and summer. They also give Biden plenty of ammo to hit Trump in the head.
Although Trump is the president, he is the one who most needs the debates to try to change course. Joe Biden leads almost all opinion polls. He also leads in many of the so-called swing states, which decide who gets the most electoral votes in the states.
Therefore, we will probably see a president fighting for his political life. Trump hates to lose. He also knows that various lawsuits are likely to await the day when he is forced to move out of the White House. If he can stay another four years, he will keep the wolves at bay.
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