The peak of infection in Norway can be reached by the end of the year.

Corona infection in Norway could increase dramatically in the coming months, writes the Norwegian National Institute of Public Health FHI in a new report.

If development goes in the same direction as today, Norway could reach its peak of infection by the end of 2020, it is stated in the document that VG has read.

The FHI model shows that the probability that more than 500 patients will need a ventilator is 40 percent. The probability that more than 1,000 people will need a respirator is estimated to be 30 percent.

According to the report, all municipalities in Norway have a 50 percent risk of contracting more than 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, which means that they become so-called “red” zones.

The R number, which shows how many infected people the infection transmits to on average, may have been 1.22 on Sept. 1, according to the report.

R number has risen

When the country was most closed in March, the figure was below 1, then dropped to 0.5 before rising to 1 in early May and staying there.

Yesterday, local restrictions on mouth protection were announced in Oslo after the spread of the infection increased. In the past two weeks, 619 people have been confirmed to be infected with the virus in Oslo.

The Norwegian Health Directorate, the Norwegian equivalent of the National Board of Health and Welfare, has recommended that the capital limit the number of people who can meet in a household to a maximum of five people. Today, the maximum limit is ten people.

However, the municipal president has announced that the limit will not be lowered further in the current situation.

– If we want to continue to be successful in keeping the infection low, we must earn the trust of the people, says Mayor Raymond Johansen (AP) during a press conference.