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– The difference between the mortality rates in the countries during the winter may not even be statistically significant, and so it seems incredible that it is a reasonable explanation, says Joacim Rocklöv, professor of epidemiology and public health at Umeå University, to SvD .
Sweden has 5,865 deaths laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients, or 56.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The corresponding proportions for Denmark are 10.9, Finland 6.13 and Norway 4.98.
Anders Tegnell says in his interview with DN that the mild flu season is not the only reason why more people have died in Sweden, it may have been the main reason. For SvD, it departs in part from that formulation, but still emphasizes that it is an important factor.
– Cannot be counted per capita. You have to have the group susceptible to this type of infection, and it is very limited. You have to look at the absolute numbers, how big the excess mortality has been in the different seasons, Anders Tegnell tells SvD in response to Rocklöv’s criticism.
In his defense, he refers to a study by open and critical economists of the blockade such as Daniel B Klein, Joakim Book and Christian Bjørnskov, published by the American George Mason University. List sixteen possible factors that explain why the death toll in Sweden is relatively high.
It also refers to a YouTube clip of polemicist Ivor Cummins, whose academic credentials are topped with a 1990 undergraduate degree in biochemistry. Cummins reviews the study and highlights other research examples or articles that he believes support the Swedish strategy.
The first and most important explanation of the study is called “dry tinder.” The metaphor refers to those who survived last year’s relatively mild flu season in Sweden, but whose fragility was unable to fend off COVID-19.
Researchers estimate that this factor accounts for up to 50 percent of Swedish deaths.
Joacim Rocklöv.
Photo: Mattias Pettersson
To promote that thesis compares all death rates in Sweden for the two-year periods 2016 / -17 and 2018 / -19, respectively, when mortality fell by 0.6 per 1,000 population. The corresponding reductions in neighboring countries were 0.0 for Denmark, 0.3 for Norway and 0.1 for Finland, ie the others would have less “dry snot” than Sweden.
Niklas Arnberg, professor of virology at Umeå University, tells Aftonbadet that Anders Tegnell’s reasoning is reasonable.
– If it is the case that during the last year or years we have had a low mortality in influenza compared to our neighboring countries, this may at least partially explain why Sweden has had a relatively high mortality in covid-19, he says to Aftonbladet.
Björn Olsen, professor of infectious diseases at Uppsala University and one of the 22 researchers who criticized Sweden’s strategy at DN Debatt, also writes to Aftonbladet that Tegnell has a point:
“If the flu in 2019 were mild, fewer of the elderly would die. It was probably more of the group that died during the most aggressive phase of the covid-pandemic, “Olsen writes, but adds that it can only be a partial explanation.
Frode Forland.
Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen
One who does not share Tegnell’s opinion is his Norwegian counterpart Frode Forland. The day before yesterday he told DN that the flu epidemic in Norway 2019-2020 was no worse than that in Sweden.
– When we look at the figures for the death toll in Norway and compare them with Sweden, it doesn’t seem like there is that much difference. When it comes to flu deaths in recent years, we are working to get a more detailed picture of them, but we cannot see that there are particularly high flu-related death rates in recent years in Norway, Forland said.
– From what we can see, it is not the flu that is behind the big difference between Sweden and Norway. But it is easy to believe that the main reason is that more older people were infected with COVID-19 in Sweden than in Norway.
Finland’s director of health security, Mika Salminen, agrees with Tegnell in part, but thinks there are other reasons that are more relevant to why fewer people died in Finland than in Sweden.
It may certainly be true that there were more frail elderly people in Sweden who might have been able to strike earlier if they had had a more severe flu season. That may explain part of the matter, but I don’t think the difference between Finland and Sweden depends on that, he tells DN.
Read more: Tegnell’s explanation: why so many died early in Sweden
