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Sweden has today, six months after the outbreak of the corona pandemic, more than 5,000 deaths registered with confirmed covid-19 and about 90,000 who have tested positive for the virus. It is significantly higher than in neighboring Norway and Finland, which together have around 500 deaths.
One of the main explanations, According to Anders Tegnell, it is that Sweden’s flu season last year was mild and resulted in low excess mortality. That is, the oldest and most frail people, who are generally at risk of dying from the flu, are said to have died from covid-19 in the spring.
– The new report shows that there is a strong link between a low excess mortality in influenza and a high excess mortality in covid-19. And vice versa, Anders Tegnell explained in an interview with DN on Thursday.
Mika Salminen is head of health security at the Institute of Health and Wellbeing, THL, in Finland. He is no stranger to the idea that a low excess mortality during a flu period would lead to a higher excess mortality when the next threat arrives.
– Of course, it is a possible partial explanation. But it may not be something we think would be the main reason, says Mika Salminen and continues:
It may certainly be true that there were more frail elderly people in Sweden who might have been able to strike earlier if they had had a more severe flu season. That may explain part of it, but I don’t think the difference between Finland and Sweden depends on it.
In Finland, 339 people have died from covid-19 and more than 8,700 people have been confirmed to be infected with the virus. Therefore, the infection has reached about one-tenth the amount in Finland than in Sweden, and the death rate is even lower in comparison.
Rather it depends on Finland’s first strong efforts, says Mika Salminen. Not least in the care of the elderly with regard to protective equipment and instructions for employees with symptoms.
– What we both worked hard on at the beginning and what we had a hard time dealing with was preventing the virus from entering care institutions. But maybe we were a little better off because we had access to more protective equipment than you had in Sweden thanks to the fact that our emergency center was in stock. We never run out of equipment, says Mika Salminen.
– Of course, we also have a large proportion of deaths in the care of the elderly. But it became a smaller proportion than in Sweden. So our entire epidemic is much smaller than Sweden’s and it goes a bit hand in hand, he adds.
“We think this means that we will find a large number of cases,” says Mika Salminen of Finland’s testing capacity.
Photo: Niklas Meltio
In the DN interview, Anders Tegnell mentions several other reasons, besides the difference in flu season, why fewer people died in Finland than in Sweden. Among other things, that fewer people traveled to and from Finland at the start of the pandemic, that they had fewer peripheral areas and metropolitan regions than Sweden, and that they were well prepared.
Mika Salminen chooses highlight another aspect as the main reason for Finland’s success; fast and powerful response.
Finland was one of the first to stop public gatherings and restrict human contact.
– It had a greater effect than we could dream of. We hoped it would only slow down, but in practice the epidemic almost stopped. We had almost no cases during the summer, he says.
During the fall, testing capacity has increased in Finland and this has led to the discovery of more infections. Nearly 100,000 tests are done each week and about a half percent are positive, says Salminen.
– We believe that this means that we found a large part of the cases. You can’t find everyone, but it should be a notable part of the case, he says.
An aspect that marks the bill of deaths it is difficult to really assess the cause of death. Have you died with the disease or of he?
In Sweden, people are classified as deceased in covid-19 when they die from the disease. Finland calculates similarly, but Mika Salminen believes that careful studies will then be required to determine in the future in how many cases the virus has actually been the direct cause of death.
– It is always difficult to draw the line, what is the cause and what is the consequence? Is it the case that older people are fragile and therefore die more easily or is it the case that covid-19 is the last straw that makes people who are fragile leave?
Also read: Tegnell’s explanation: that’s why so many died so early in Sweden
Also read: Finland eases restrictions – opens for Swedes
