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There are opinion polls almost every day before the US presidential election on November 3, and there it seems difficult for US President Donald Trump.
In Realclearpolitics’ compilation of the latest national polls, Joe Biden leads by an average of seven percentage points over Donald Trump. Biden also leads in most states where the election will be decided in practice, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Some thought we would see a change after the two-party conventions in late August, where Republicans lobbied heavily on issues like elections and order. But the measures have not moved significantly.
However, dramatic things have happened in the betting companies. Realclearpolitics knows it too.
In early August, Biden was judged to have a 60.9 percent chance of winning against Trump’s 36.9 percent. And today? Biden is at 51.5 to Trump’s 47.8.
Investing money in elections in the US is prohibited.
Not only that. There are British and Australian gambling companies that now have Trump as their favorite to win the election. At Unibet, they are currently completely parallel and give the same amount of money.
Investing money in political election results in the United States is prohibited, so the companies are not American. So why are the probabilities so different from the measurements?
“The money just flowed in and Trump will win,” gambling expert Rufus Peabody told CNN.
– Does this mean that there has been a fundamental change or that the market is bad? I am always inclined that betting odds are better at predicting an outcome than opinion polls.
One of those who has invested money is Australian Matthew Collins. He made money for Joe Biden to choose Kamala Harris as his vice president candidate. Now he believes in Trump as the winner in November.
– Republicans seem to like the United States more. They don’t hate their own country. I didn’t get a similar message from the Democrats and I don’t think it works that well.
