SEB: Analysts overestimated the impact of the pandemic on the real estate market



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In September, the indicator rose to 46 from 40 the previous month. In May, the level bottomed out at -26.

Now the record drop from all spring has picked up and household house price expectations are back to where they were before the pandemic hit. The dramatic fluctuations in the housing price indicator have not been reflected in the corresponding movements in real prices. On the contrary, they have developed quite steadily during the spring and summer and it is clear that both households and analysts initially overestimated the negative importance of the pandemic for the housing market, says SEB private economist Jens Magnusson, in a press release.

The proportion of households that believe in price increases increases by 3 percentage points from last month and to 55 percent.

The proportion of households that believe in falling prices in the next year is now 9%, compared to 12% the previous month.

The share that believes in unchanged prices increases from 27 to 29 percent.

The house price indicator is the difference between the proportion that believes in rising prices and the proportion that believes in falling prices. The indicator is in this measure at 46, which represents an increase of 6 units compared to last month.

Sep-20 20th of August Jul 20 June 20th May 20th Apr-20 Mar-20 20-feb Jan-20 Dec-19 Nov-19 October 19
46 40 24 -2. 3 -26 -twenty 47 Four. Five 43 43 42 46
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