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The government faces several tough challenges as politics seriously takes off again. As early as October, a government crisis may be imminent due to labor law.
– Stefan Löfven cannot remain prime minister if he presents a proposal that looks like the investigation, says Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt.
Many tough questions await Prime Minister Stefan Löfven (S) this fall. Stock Photography
Labor law is now far from the only question to ask Stefan Löfven this fall. Migration, defense, unemployment insurance, gang crime, the Preem oil refinery, the crown crisis, are a few others with inherent explosive power.
– Autumn will be difficult for the Löfven government. Several of the most important issues, such as immigration policy and labor law, are related to the issue of government. This means that social democrats become dependent on processes that the party cannot control, says political scientist and social democrat Ulf Bjereld.
Labor law is next in line and is, so far, the only one that carries a pronounced threat of distrust of government.
According to a research proposal, employers are proposed to exempt five people from priority rules in case of layoffs, regardless of the size of the company. Today, a maximum of two people apply to companies with a maximum of ten employees. According to the investigation, the possibility of canceling a dismissal must be changed in favor of the employer.
If the parties in the labor market can agree on the changes themselves, the government will follow that line instead of investigating. Otherwise, the research proposal will be implemented, according to the January agreement.
The parties have 24 days to agree. If they don’t, a quitting party leader is waiting to make a headline exit.
– So Löfven must come out and say that the research proposal will not be implemented. If they say that the investigation proposal will be implemented, we will not wait for a concrete bill, but will act immediately, says Jonas Sjöstedt.
He will then seek the support of M and KD for a statement of censorship against Löfven. SD does not negotiate with V, but everyone knows that the strategy is based on his support.
Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has announced his support, but does not have an ideal seat. The only outcome may be that it helps Jonas Sjöstedt stop a proposal he really wants as long as Löfven remains or returns as prime minister. The chances are high that the Center will turn around and suddenly release Kristersson.
– It is also obvious that neither party that touches the government crisis button seems to have a particularly elaborate plan B for what would happen then. No powerful right-wing alternative has yet been developed, says political scientist Jonas Hinnfors.
– With the current state of public opinion, various parties are also learning to fear the uncertainty that a by-election would bring, which means that Löfven, who is the one who can announce by-elections, has quite a powerful threat at his disposal, he says.
If Löfven wins the first round, there are two more waiting that could threaten the government; in these cases from within: migration and Preem.
The only party that fully supported the report of the Immigration Commission on the tightening of immigration policy was the Social Democrats. The government partner, the Green Party, was largely reserved against the entire report, that is, against its government partner. However, the government must present a bill.
The other problem with explosive power is the Preem application to build an oil refinery at Lysekil. A government approval would create convulsions in the Green Party. The responsible minister, Isabella Lövin (MP), has surrendered before it is clear.
A conflict that awaits between the government and the parties of the Center and Liberal coalition is the temporary improvement of the unemployment insurance fund. The union pressure on S for the permanent ones to be tough while C and L push on the line of work and don’t want to accept it at all.
In November, the Crown Commission will present a first report on how things could go so bad in nursing homes. Peace is over and the opposition will not hesitate to attack the government.
Gang shootings are another issue where pressure on the government to act will increase during the fall. Another issue the government has trouble with is drafting a defense bill that will win support in the Riksdag. All the bourgeois parties are demanding more money than the government has been willing to push so far.
Burning questions this fall
The solemn inauguration of the Riksdag on September 8. Government statement.
Party leader debate on September 9.
Budget bill September 21.
Labor legislation: if the parties do not agree before September 30, there will be legislation. V threatens to distrust.
Defense negotiations. The bourgeois parties demand more money.
The unemployment insurance fund. Should the improvements be permanent or not? Contradictions between the January holidays.
Report of the Migration Commission. Only S is for. Strong contradictions between S and MP.
Preem Oil Refinery in Lysekil. The government must decide. Strong contradictions between S and MP.
Gang crime. The opposition demands a harder grip.
The Corona Commission on Nov. 30 on deaths in nursing homes.
What happens politically if the spread of infection increases? Borgfreden finished.
