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In the study, which is published in the scientific journal Science Advances, researchers from Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom have analyzed fossil data from the 351 species of mammals that we know have been extinct since the beginning of the Upper Pleistocene geological epoch.
Including iconic mammals like mammoths, saber-toothed tigers, and giant bed bugs.
– They did not die from major weather events, such as the end of the last ice age. They died from human influence, says Tobias Andermann, one of the researchers who led the study.
Fossils have been compared to the emigration of prehistoric peoples from Africa and the colonization of the continents.
– Extinction has not occurred steadily. Instead, we can see sharp increases at the same time that humans reached new continents and islands. And when the rate increases, it does not decrease, but stays at high levels.
Challenge previous research
The study contradicts the view of some researchers that major climate change, such as the recent ice age, has been the leading cause of extinction in the past 126,000 years.
– Instead, we found that mammals have adapted during the last ice formation cycles and probably managed to move to a place that fits better. However, current climate change poses a great threat, in combination with fragmented habitats.
Explaining exactly the role of prehistoric man in the extinction of mammalian species is complex, says Andermann. Some species were hunted by humans, like the mammoths in North America and Eurasia. Others are believed to have gone extinct when migrants introduced new species, such as the dog’s arrival with humans in Australia thousands of years ago.
Impact on land, such as wildfire use, the researchers believe has had an even greater impact.
– We don’t know exactly how. But it is clear that the arrival of humans has put pressure on ecosystems and that biodiversity has been negatively affected. People are changing the environment, and always have.
Dark future
According to the study, the rate at which mammals become extinct has increased 1,600 times compared to levels of 126,000 years ago. And for the future, it will quickly get worse.
– Today, the extinction rate of mammals is the highest since the end of the age of dinosaurs. And we are only at the beginning of a great wave of extinctions that we will notice in the next decade.
Using computer simulations, the researchers predict that the extinction rate will be 30,000 times higher than natural by the year 2100.
– If the trend of the last decades continues, it is expected that by then we will lose 557 species of mammals. But if, for example, we manage to prevent even more species from being threatened, we could lose 416 species.
Despite the gloomy forecasts, it is still possible to reverse the trend, according to Andermann.
– If we increase our conservation efforts, we can save many more species. For example, our simulations show that a ten-fold increase in conservation would “only” lead to the extinction of 143 mammals.
Jonas Grönvik / TT
In Sweden there are currently 25 mammals on the red list:
Nationally extinct: wild reindeer, black rat.
Endangered: gray eel (species of bat), porpoise (population of the Baltic Sea).
Highly Endangered: Bechstein’s Bat, Eurasian Forest Wolf, Mountain Fox, Nymph Bat, Greater Mouse Ear (Bat species).
Vulnerable: Wolverine, harbor seal (Baltic Sea population), lynx, smaller brown bat, southern pipistrell (species of bat).
Nearly endangered: Barbastell (bat species), brown bear, brown long tail (bat species), dust bat, fringed bat, hedgehog, red deer, northern bat, southern bat, forest hare, Otter.
Source: species database
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