Epidemiologist: pandemic causes health disaster

Anna Mia Ekström, Professor of Global Infection Epidemiology at Karolinska Institutet, believes the world may have the worst when it comes to rising COVID-19 deaths.

– There are still large regions where there has not been much infection. But countries most at risk of high death rates have already been affected and are now better prepared as well. So we’re basically talking about the western world, which has a higher proportion of older people, he says.

Africa is the continent that has so far registered the least spread of the infection. But according to Anna Mia Ekström, there are many indications that the death rate in many African countries does not have to be particularly high, even if the infection were to gain momentum there. Also notable is India, where infection rates are currently very high, but where mortality rates still appear to be relatively low.

– Much of the population is very young in these countries. In Africa, only three percent of the population is over 65. The proportion of people with high blood pressure in India is around 10 percent and people with obesity are also significantly lower compared to, for example, the United States. So if you look at the risk landscape in these countries, they should have fewer deaths and fewer serious illnesses.

Despite this, Anna Mia Ekström wants not to mention that we have faced the worst of the pandemic in general, globally. Rather, he believes that the world is facing a public health catastrophe, which may have consequences in the future.

– If you look at the illnesses and deaths related to the effects of the pandemic on society, through closures and inattention, they will probably far exceed the deaths from the disease itself, he says and continues:

– Childhood diseases against which we usually get vaccinated, sexual abuse, domestic violence, lack of medicines, dangerous births and abortions, poverty and hunger. All of this has already increased, and will continue to increase further as a result of the global response to the pandemic. The effects of all restrictions, nationally and internationally, are much more dangerous to the world than the disease itself, I would say.

Anna Mia Ekström also highlights other effects, such as cancer screenings that don’t go away. There are shortages of drugs such as antibiotics and insulin in many regions of the world. Malaria, tuberculosis and HIV are some of the diseases that are now becoming more common due to the lack of measures to stop them.

– Now everyone knows that if you stop controlling infectious diseases, they increase. This doesn’t just apply to covid-19, he says.

Annelie Börjesson, President at the Swedish UN, he says that in some areas it will take several decades to get back to where they were before the pandemic.

– We have regressed a lot in recent months, on many issues. We see alarming figures on how many are expected to suffer from hunger in the future, millions of people are feared to fall into extreme poverty and inequality is increasing rapidly, both internationally and within countries.

The schooling of 1.6 billion children and young people is affected by the pandemic, according to UN figures. When children stay home and do not go to school, work closes and curfews are introduced, women and children are more affected.

– Risks increase for girls who marry and for teenage pregnancies that are often linked to various forms of abuse. Even if the school opens, it is not entirely certain that the girls will be able to return. We have worked very hard for girls to get an education in recent years, but good results. But now we return quickly.

The difficult situation that has arisen and is now getting worse, can force many people to flee.

– There is an imminent risk of that. When you can’t get food for the day and your livelihood is gone, you don’t have many options. About 80 million people are fleeing today and the number is very likely to increase, says Annelie Börjesson.

Both describe the consequences of the pandemic as almost unmanageable. They believe that the spread of the new coronavirus has overshadowed much more.

Anna Mia Ekström believes that the world has focused fully on managing the new coronavirus, at the expense of many other important health measures.

– It is easy to look back, but global players like the WHO would have needed a slightly more differentiated strategy and emphasized the importance of maintaining other health measures, which we know save millions of lives. We let all the other balls go, I never thought it would happen. Now we have an obvious disaster before our eyes, especially in poor countries, he says.

Has recently WHO addressed the problem Anna Mia Ekström is talking about in many different ways and highlighted the importance of providing medical care and medicines for other diseases.

“The true impact of covid-19 on increasing morbidity and mortality in other diseases remains to be seen,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday.

WHO’s work today is carried out on an enormously small budget compared to what is expected to be achieved, says Annelie Börjesson. The entire UN is now faced with the challenge of reducing resources while increasing needs, he says.

– WHO’s total budget is like a medium-sized hospital in New York. In relation to the work to be done, it is not easy. The UN is always underfunded, but when the global economy falls, it gets even worse. Now countries are withholding their contributions because they think they need the resources at home, and I understand that, but in many countries there are no resources to use and they are becoming hugely vulnerable now.

To solve that situation that the world faces, or at least mitigates the consequences as best it can, solidarity is required and that more resources are directed to the actors who work for those most affected, says Annelie Börjesson.

– I would like countries, private donors and everyone who has the opportunity to make sure they give all they can. Because the resources are what is needed and the money is in the world. There are many billionaires who would like to step up in this situation. It is solidarity that is required now, he says.

Anna Mia Ekström sees the opening of schools as the most urgent thing.

– The most important thing is that all children can go back to school. Then the whole focus is on scaling up all preventive health care programs and hunger relief efforts, and the import and export of medicines begins. Support programs are also needed for those who have been victims of violence. It takes a lot of effort to save the damage, she says and continues:

– I think we should have a broader perspective. It is terrible for people to die in the pandemic and great pain for all who have been affected, but of all who have died this year, they make up two percent. We report every death in covid-19, but not what happens to the others who die, in diseases that we can really cure. They must also be restored.

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