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The results in Spanish are based on evidence from more than 60,000 people across the country. The study was carried out by the Carlos III Institute and the Spanish equivalent of Statistics Sweden.
Preliminary results show that approximately five percent of the population carries antibodies and, therefore, has been infected with covid-19.
It can be double
But in fact, 5 percent may already be 10 percent. And even 20 percent or more in metropolitan regions. This is what Anders Björkman, professor of infectious medicine at the Karolinska Institute, believes.
– It was a long-awaited result that probably doubled today, he says.
It takes about two weeks for the body to develop antibodies from the time it contracts covid-19, he explains.
The tests in Spain were carried out between April 27 and May 11. A median date will be May 4, meaning many of the people screened got sick before April 20, several of them probably before that.
Anders Björkman, therefore, believes that the results presented now reflect the proportion of those infected about a month ago. He believes that the number of infected has doubled since then.
Corresponds to Stockholm
The Spanish study also shows important regional differences in the country. In the Madrid area, 11.3 percent of the population had antibodies. If you double it, today’s numbers drop to just over 22 percent.
– This is a sum that is quite in line with Stockholm, where we believe that just over 20 percent have been infected. It could even start to get closer to 30, says Anders Björkman.
Furthermore, the results show that antibody tests do not trap all infected.
In the study, it was asked if the evaluated subjects had been previously diagnosed with covid-19. Among the group that responded that they were diagnosed, 87 percent were taking antibodies.
This means that 13 percent of those diagnosed with covid-19 showed negative antibody test results, which in turn indicates that the actual number of infected may be even higher, says Anders Björkman.
Hard to compare
In Sweden, several smaller studies indicate that they have become more infected than the study in Spain shows. State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell tells TT that comparisons of the proportion of infected are difficult to make.
“I would probably say that for this disease, we will probably never be able to transfer data of this type from one country to another,” he says.
