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60,000 Spaniards have been evaluated to detect the presence of antibodies against the new corona virus, in a study carried out by the Carlos III Institute and the State Statistics Office, reports Reuters. Regional differences were large, but nationwide, the study indicates that about five percent have been infected with the virus, according to preliminary results.
Together with the Spanish Minister of Health, the country, which has a significantly higher per capita mortality rate than Sweden, has a long way to go to achieve herd immunity.
About similar numbers It applies to France, according to the French Pasteur Institute, which focuses on disease and the spread of infection. The Institute estimates, in an article published in the journal Science, that 4.4 percent of French people had the virus.
In Sweden, mathematician Tom Britton of Stockholm University calculated that Stockholm could achieve mass immunity in mid-June and thus be discontinued, and according to the state epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency, Anders Tegnell, the results in Spain do not have to reevaluate the Swedish estimate of the number of infected.
– You can have very big problems with relatively small numbers, if it comes very fast. There are many reasons why it has become so (high mortality rates) in Spain, he says.
Also, it is difficult. to compare the spread of infection between countries, Tegnell says.
– Especially since the disease spreads so irregularly. If the flu or disease is known to spread fairly evenly among the population, it may have been possible to make transfers between different countries.
– I would probably say that for this disease we will probably never be able to transfer data of this type from one country to another.
Furthermore, there are several smaller studies in Sweden that are significantly above the Spanish level of the proportion of people infected, he says.
Petter Brodin, an immunologist at the Karolinska Institute, says that the results for Spain are approximately at the same level as a measurement for Belgium, but they point out that these results are not the same as immunity.
– You have to have the same fireplace for all of these, I think. We measure something that correlates with immunity, but not with immunity itself.
He believes that more people are likely to be infected than are clearly producing antibodies.
– If you have had a very mild infection, you may have very low amounts of antibodies, and combined with the fact that we know that many who have had no symptoms, it is reasonable to believe that many of those who have had the infection does not have as many antibodies in the blood.
But that one doesn’t give a decision an antibody test does not automatically mean that you have not developed any type of immunity, he says.
– We do not know. It might be protected anyway. You can have protection, although you have very low antibodies, but not measurable now.
The reliability of the tests also needs to be considered, believes Anders Tegnell and Petter Brodin, as some cases are still missing.
Petter Brodin does not believe that it should be ruled out that the Stockholm area reaches 30-40 percent infected and that the spread is slowing as a consequence.
– The immunity of the flock is neither black nor white. It can have a certain degree of population immunity and reduce the spread, and can already occur in 20-25 percent of infected, he says.
