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Much indicates that sooner or later everyone will be affected by the corona virus.
No one knows how many people will eventually die from the virus, but math teacher Tom Britton has a theory:
– Around 12,000, he says.
So far, more than 3,000 Swedes have died from the corona virus. According to a calculation by Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, the pandemic will likely have claimed 8,000 to 20,000 lives from Swedes.
He calculated from the Public Health Agency’s estimate of the number of people infected in Stockholm on April 6 and divided the death toll as of April 30, as it takes approximately three weeks from the date of infection. until one dies. Thus Britton produced a death rate of 0.39 percent.
– But I think mortality will decrease a little in the future, because we will probably be better at treating the sick and protecting the elderly. So my best guess is that there will be around 12,000 dead, Tom Britton tells TT.
Photo: Niklas Björling / SU
Tom britton
Decisive tenths
The calculation of how dangerous the virus is is very close to a German estimate that the other day showed a death rate of 0.37 percent. This is significantly less than the 0.8-1.0 percent death rate that British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson previously estimated.
All of this may seem like juggling a tenth of a percent here and there, but as Tom Britton’s calculation shows, these tenths could affect the lives of thousands of Swedes. Because if the mortality results in 0.2 percent, it will only be half that in Tom Britton’s calculation.
– I think that’s where we will end up in Sweden, somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 percent. In that case, mortality seems to be lower than in some parts of northern Italy, for example, and it will be very exciting, in part having to confirm whether it really is so and, if so, understand why it is so, says Jan Albert. , Professor of Infectious Diseases at the Karolinska Institute.
Different differences
Until now, the pandemic has spread very unevenly throughout the world. Some places, such as northern Italy and Belgium, have been severely affected, while others have hardly been affected.
For example, the corona virus has resulted in mass burials in Iran, while neighboring Iraq has only had a few hundred deaths. Indonesia has also been hit hard, while Malaysia has become much easier. Global cities like London, New York and Paris have also suffered, unlike Bangkok, New Delhi and Lagos.
There are a number of explanations for this. In addition to the possible lack of information in some countries, there are also demographic, cultural, climatic and geographic differences between countries that, at least in part, may explain why a spread of the infection is gaining momentum in one country, but not in another. .
Corona virus is especially dangerous for the elderly. Therefore, the virus is likely to take up a significantly larger proportion of Europe’s population, which is relatively old, compared to Africa, where more than 60 percent of residents are 25 or younger. In countries like India, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, people are not greeted by holding hands, comparing them to Europe, where the custom is so deeply ingrained that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who later became ill at Covid -19, he continued stubbornly shaking hands. in violation of the advisers’ recommendation.
Reaching everyone – finally
But, in general, it is not a single cause that determines the severity of a country, but a combination of several. Additionally, there is another factor that experts say can be absolutely crucial in spreading the infection: possibility. That is, what we generally call everyday or unfortunate.
For example, the outbreak in northern Italy coincided with the week that Stockholm, Dalarna and Västmanland had sports vacations. The same week there were also school vacations in the densely populated Belgium. And like the Swedes, many Belgians appreciate skiing in Italy. Consequently, both Stockholm and Belgium were affected.
Another explanation for why some sites have been saved may also be that the virus just hasn’t hit it yet. Because even though the pandemic has been going on for months, most experts agree that we are still at the beginning. Time can thus become the most decisive factor of all and that corrects any difference in the end. This was the case with the Spanish disease in 1918, which at first also hit the world very unevenly. During the summer months, the spread of the contagion seemed to be disappearing, but then a second, even more deadly wave followed, and the following year, a third, which eventually caused the virus to reach the remote Pacific islands.
We don’t know how to deal with the coronavirus, although former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke recently wrote in The Lancet that the virus is so contagious that “everyone” will become infected. It’s just a matter of time.
Photo: Stefan Hörberg / Rithuset AB
The virus continues to harvest lives. How many people will eventually die is uncertain. Illustration.
Facts: world death rate
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