[ad_1]
ofTT
published:
Photo: Jessica Gow / TT
“If we are going to start with previous pandemics, the second wave depends entirely on how many people have been infected in the first wave,” says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Stock Photography.
Countries of the world are working hard to stop or reduce the spread of the coronavirus. But just as the curves begin to turn, more and more people speak of “a second wave.”
But what is it really? And how concerned should we be?
What does a second wave mean?
“If you go back to previous pandemics like the Spanish disease, the Asian flu, from Hong Kong, where you had a second, third and maybe a fourth wave, the pandemic has flown without people being protected against it,” says Fredrik Elgh, professor of virology at Umeå University.
When people receive protection, the virus cannot infect as many and it sounds.
“When it comes to flu pandemics, and where we don’t know anything about other waves in the crown context, they can come half a year, a year after the first round, and then it will take off again,” says Fredrik Elgh.
Why do you get a second wave of viruses?
This may be in part because enough people have not had the disease, says Fredrik Elgh.
– And it could also be that some people who had the disease had it very light and superficial and that their immune system did not last half a year later, he says, adding:
– A third reason may be that the virus is changing slightly and that some who do not have a sufficiently large immune system become susceptible again.
Where is the virus when it slows down the spread of infection?
– It may be that the infection is present without being visible or that the virus has worked in another part of the world and then it returns. The flu behaves this way. Annual seasonal flu comes first in the southern hemisphere and then comes to us when it’s colder here. It depends on how good the conditions are, says Fredrik Elgh.
Viruses don’t go away, he emphasizes.
– The common coronavirus reappears year after year. Not that no one receives them during the hot period. A low-grade infection occurs and flourishes when the virus improves.
When can a possible second wave come?
– It is difficult to predict with this virus because we greatly affect this process. Although we could have affected it even more, we have a lot of influence on this virus. We are slowing down the process, says Fredrik Elgh, citing the various restrictions that exist.
– There is no solid research in this area, it is the mathematical modeling and thinking activities that are behind the knowledge of a possible second wave.
Can you reduce the spread of infection during the summer?
Fredrik Elgh does not believe that the virus will decrease during the summer and it is difficult to say if you can really speak of a “second wave” because the virus is very new.
– If it is an active infection that is spread in society with a virus that we have not encountered before, then the conditions for it to calm down during the summer are not as good as when it is an influenza epidemic.
– We have a long way to go before the herd’s possible immunity and a possible second wave are a long way off. First, we have to work through this, he says.
Has any country seen a second wave yet?
In most countries of the world, the fight against the first wave of viruses still continues. Others have also been able to slow the spread of the infection to a greater extent, but there has been no clear second wave anywhere, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
– If we are going to start from previous pandemics, the second wave depends entirely on how many people have been infected in the first wave. If it has spread too far, the second wave will be smoother, he says.
What can almost be compared to a second wave so far is the situation in Singapore. There, they first managed to keep the virus outbreak under control, but then spread again, mainly in the dormitory complex where guest workers live together.
– It’s the closest you can call a second wave, says Anders Tegnell.
published:
