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By all previous estimates, 60 percent of the population should be immune to the spread of infection. A new calculation, which is a collaboration between the Department of Mathematics at Stockholm University and the University of Nottingham, shows that less infection is needed before the population reaches immune protection.
Tom Britton, a professor at Stockholm University, is one of the researchers behind the new figures.
– When an infection is transmitted in a population, it is not transmitted randomly, but those who meet many people are at greater risk of becoming infected than those who are less social.
– When immunity arises from the spread of a disease, immunity is not transmitted uniformly, as when vaccinated. So when 40 percent of the population has been infected, then maybe the extra social is infected with 60 percent and then more immune than the non-social, says Tom Britton.
40-45 percent may be sufficient for collective immunity
The model has a reproduction rate of 2.5 (when an average person infects 2.5 people) and this concludes that herd immunity occurs at about 40-45 percent instead of 60 percent, according to Tom Britton. . The survey results have not yet been verified with quality.
– Two things that make our results probable are that another group in Liverpool has reached the same conclusions. And perhaps the most prominent epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch at Harvard has read our reports and tweeted in positive terms, says Tom Britton.
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell tells TT that even if Stockholm achieves herd immunity in June, it doesn’t mean the danger is over.
– We will still have a lot of spread, but at a low level, says Anders Tegnell.
Traveling in summer
Currently, the Foreign Ministry does not recommend foreign travel until June 15, but according to Foreign Minister Ann Linde (S), it will not be free to travel after that, even if restrictions on travel. The Public Health Authority has said that they will announce at the end of May what it will be like in summer with the trips.
– We come with a message, but the message we come with depends on development. It is not about getting a further increase in cases in Sweden, says Anders Tegnell.
