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The flock’s immunity to the crown could be achieved when 40 percent of the population had the virus according to a new study, reports Svenska Dagbladet.
– This positive news may mean that you don’t have to go as far with restrictions in Sweden as in other countries, says Professor Tom Britton.
According to previous forecasts, 60 percent of the population would need to have recovered from the crown before they could speak of a collective immunity.
But the new figures point in a significantly more positive direction.
Tom Britton, a professor at Stockholm University, has come up with new calculations that herd immunity can already be achieved when 40 percent are considered to be immune.
Photo: Niklas Björling / SU
Tom Britton, a professor at Stockholm University, has come up with new calculations that herd immunity can already be achieved when 40 percent are considered to be immune.
Immunity as early as June
If so, the immunity of the batch would have been achieved in Stockholm, where the spread of infection is greatest, in about a month.
“Our conclusion is that herd immunity will prevail mainly in the Stockholm region in mid-June,” he tells Svenska Dagbladet.
The herd immunity theory assumes that the spread of the virus stops when enough people in the population are immune, which also protects those who are not.
– This positive news may mean you don’t have to go as far with restrictionsr In Sweden as in other countries, Tom Britton tells SvD.
Photo: BJÖRN LINDAHL
“That doesn’t mean the danger is over,” says Anders Tegnell.
Tegnell: “Pointing clearly in that direction”
Even state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell believes that immunity from the herd in Stockholm is possible in a month, but notes that one should not relax because of it.
– The small studies carried out clearly point in this direction. But that does not mean that the danger has passed. It will only make the spread of the infection much slower, he tells Dagens Nyheter.
“Give hope”
The calculation, carried out by Tom Britton together with Pieter Trapman from the Department of Mathematics at Stockholm University and Frank Ball from the University of Nottingham, assumes that each infected person in turn infects 2.5 people.
In Liverpool, another research team concluded that batch immunity can be achieved when 10-20 percent of the population has the virus. Something Britton thinks is overly optimistic. Neither of the two new studies has been reviewed for quality.
According to the DN, the Public Health Agency itself is conducting its own study, which will be completed next week.
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