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It was in the SVT News yesterday that Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics, and Uno Wennergren, professor of theoretical biology, presented calculations showing that between 8,000 and 20,000 Swedes can die as a result of the coronavirus.
The two teachers had counted separately, but both obtained a similar result.
I wish I could say 10,000, but I would probably say 10,000 or 8,000 to 20,000, Tom Britton said in the television studio.
Tom Britton has compared the Public Health Authority’s assessment of how many people in Stockholm County are estimated to have been infected about three weeks ago with how many people have died today, as it often takes a long time before an infected person dies. . Tom Britton’s conclusion is that the death rate is approximately 0.4 percent.
Compare countries
One Wennergren, on the other hand, has investigated, among other things, death rates in other countries and compared how far they have gone in spreading the infection, which can be expected to become infected with the virus, and the ability from the Swedish health system to care for those who are seriously ill.
If we behave like we did before with the full spread of the infection, then we end up somewhere in the 20,000-40,000 range that are likely to die. But today with maybe 50 percent to be infected, then my estimate is 10,000-20,000, Wennergren said.
Correct – in theory
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says the calculations may very well be true, in theory.
They are certainly right on a theoretical level and what we have seen so far is probably not completely wrong. But it all depends on our ability to prevent this infection from entering our nursing homes. If it remains at the same level as it is now, which quite infects the elderly, then unfortunately it is true, although I think it is closer to the lower levels than the higher levels considering how far we have come and how many deaths we have today. But given the amount of work that is done in nursing homes and that we know there are some shortcomings, it should be reasonable to reduce this spread of infection, he says.
Fragile elderly
TT: Is it possible to protect the elderly, after all, almost all other countries have also infected the elderly?
But we have unusually high death rates, especially compared to our neighboring countries. If that is inevitable, we don’t know, but obviously there are things that can be better. That is our hope in any case, says Tegnell.
TT: The average age of elderly care in Sweden is high, you almost have to die to get a place. Does it matter
I think that is completely relevant. Sweden’s nursing homes stand out.
TT: Tom Britton expects a 0.4 percent death rate, what do you say about it?
It sounds strong, if you mean the entire population. Some of our models indicate that there are not many people you see, that there is a big dark figure, so you would probably be a little depressed.
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