Bottom line: Discard deadlines, self-imposed or otherwise. This process will take time due to widely divergent views within the party and between parties on this legislation. The biggest question right now, particularly for the leadership of the Republican White House and Senate: Was Tuesday just a ventilation session or a sign of deeper fissures that could threaten the entire process?
The timeline
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the chief White House negotiator, continued throughout the day to strike a deal late next week to align with the expiration of the federal improvement in unemployment benefits. Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, was a little more circumspect over the course of the day.
The reality is this: Senior officials from both sides on Capitol Hill point to the first week of August as the most likely point for a deal given the work to be done. But nobody really knows. The real trigger to really start things is the Republican Party proposal, which is expected for the next day or two.
Inside the republican lunch
It was a hectic hour as several people in the room described it to CNN: Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas chastised his colleagues for pursuing a trillion dollar proposal, asking “What the hell are we doing?” and warning that if the bill passes, this would lead to a Joe Biden presidency. Senator Rand Paul came out and referred to lunch as a “Bernie Bros.” assembly.
Several senators made it clear that they did not see the value of the payroll tax cut given current economic problems, a key priority for President Donald Trump. One senator cautioned that the conference should be well aware of front-line Republican senators in increasingly difficult races, and their need for the economy to recover in the weeks leading up to the election.
Senator Bill Cassidy, a Republican from Louisiana, told his colleagues how he wondered if he was “on acid” when he heard that the White House wanted to zero new testing funds amid a pandemic.
As one Republican senator told CNN Tuesday night, “A lot of people had a lot to lose sight of.”
Inside the meeting between Democratic leaders and White House negotiators
Call it an introduction to the new round of negotiations, or an effort to touch base. But don’t call it a negotiation. The meeting between Mnuchin and Meadows and Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer did not break new ground and instead served as a priority list, according to an aide with knowledge of the meeting at Pelosi’s office.
Pelosi and Schumer made it clear that the Republican Party’s funds for education were woefully inadequate in their opinion, to the frustration of Republicans.
Democrats also made clear that nothing can really start until they have a Republican proposal that, of course, doesn’t exist at the moment.
“We have an invoice, let’s look at your invoice and see where we go from here,” Pelosi told reporters. “I think his delay is his disorder.”
McConnell process
There may be dissent in the ranks right now, and several key elements of the proposal are still open, but McConnell has made clear that what he reveals will have “significant” support from the Republican Party.
McConnell Quote of the Day: If you listen carefully to McConnell’s comments on the floor every day, you can often choose what he’s trying to do and how he’s trying to do it. That included, on Tuesday, how she’s trying to thread the needle in her conference on the stimulus proposal.
“The legislation that I have begun to draft is not another CARES Act to float the entire economy, nor a typical stimulus bill for a nation that is ready to return to normalcy,” McConnell said. “Our country is in a complex middle ground between these two things.
Some perspective: Shared with CNN by a handful of aides and senators who don’t think the sky is falling: there is value for members, in a closed door environment, taking frustrations off their chests, particularly in front of top White House negotiators who They may not have been fully aware of how sharp some of their objections were in this process. That may have the effect of releasing some of the pressure from the process and softening disputes within the game in the coming days. We will see if that is the case here.
And some progress: Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, the top Republican on the Health Appropriations panel, said White House negotiators were addressing Senate Republicans on the issue of new test funding, as well as the Centers for Control. and the U.S. Disease Prevention and National Institute of Health. It’s not closed yet, but the meeting hours between Blunt, Alabama Senate appropriations chairman Richard Shelby, Senate AID Committee chair Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, and Mnuchin and Meadows were “very frank,” according to Blunt, and moved. things close to a deal.
What is in the republican proposal?
– Financing of education.
Details: The Senate GOP proposal includes $ 105 billion in education funds: $ 70 billion for K-12, $ 30 billion for colleagues and universities, and $ 5 billion for governors to use on their own. Of the $ 70 billion, half, or $ 35 billion, would go to school reopening needs (PPE, transportation, school meals, modernization of buildings and classrooms)
– Direct payment checks for families and individuals.
– Tax incentives to hire and retain workers, as well as to reopen businesses for PPE and retraining
– Liability protections for companies, schools, healthcare providers and workers, non-profit organizations.
– New funding for testing, vaccination efforts, and healthcare providers.
– Second round of Paycheck Protection Program loans for the most affected companies, probably aimed at those with less than 300 employees who can demonstrate a significant decrease in income
Main areas that remain open
Unemployment insurance
Details: The July 600 expiration of the $ 600 federal unemployment insurance upgrade is obviously the most important deadline and problem that exists right now. All Republicans agree that they oppose $ 600 and also acknowledge that there will be some improvement to their proposal. The structure and level of that remain in the air, as a menu of options has been sent to Republican Party offices in an effort to find a critical mass behind a proposal.
Payroll tax reduction
Details: It’s hard to see how Republicans could leave the president’s top priority out of his initial draft, but the problem here is cost. If the Republican Party wants to keep its proposal in the $ 1 trillion range, a reduction or suspension of the payroll tax eats up a large part of that, and in turn eliminates many other key priorities. There are efforts to draft it that essentially defer the tax to a later date; that’s an accounting gimmick, but one that can be tried to bring the payroll tax into play, just for the President’s sake.
Direct payment structure
Details: Direct payments are in the Republican Party proposal, but their appearance remains part of the negotiations. Republicans have been looking for a way to target low-income people, rather than the broader scope of the first round of checks. But there is a serious complexity problem in doing so. A great success of the first emergency relief law was the speed with which the Treasury ejected billions of dollars in checks.
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