SpaceX’s 13th Starlink launch was delayed indefinitely by “severe weather in the recovery area”, later explained by CEO Elon Musk in case the drone ship lost its battle with the sea.
Originally set to launch early on September 17, the Starlink-12 – 12th Starlink V1.0 mission – was pushed to September 18, about an hour before the liftoff. SpaceX did not give a reason at the time, but is now reporting that the weather (Atlantic Ocean) in the recovery zone was responsible for the 24-hour recycling and that it was immediately delayed in an uncertain launch.
CEO Elon Musk stepped forward, revealing that the SpaceX drone ship assigned to Starlink-12 was unable to maintain its position in the strong currents of the Atlantic Ocean, and the company was forced to delay the mission indefinitely. Until the situation improves in SpaceX’s drone ship recovery zone, the company will be unable to launch the Starlink mission. Musk, however, already has a solution in mind.
The recovery is rising below the opening of Starlink tomorrow due to severe weather in the recovery area, which is likely to continue for a few days. Once confirmed, the new target will announce the launch date
– SpaceX (SpaceX) September 18, 2020
The current was too strong to keep the station for the droneship. Throsters will be upgraded for future missions.
– Elon Musk (elonmusk) September 18, 2020
In the same tweet, Musk revealed that SpaceX means its drone ship “Thrusters are being upgraded for future missions,” a clear intuitive response to drone ships receiving more power from ocean currents. There’s a simple problem, though: the drone ship Just Read the Instructions, the same ship is currently unable to keep its position (acceptedly strong) in ocean currents, having completed a few extensive upgrades months ago.
Prior to these improvements, JRTI and OCISLA were effectively identical – both sporting a few common generators and four relatively small station-keeping thrusters (bright blue). After more than half a year of operation, the drone ship JRTI came out of the other end with dramatically larger Azimuth thruster pods and at least several times the power output. The space outside the drone ship JRTI’s booster landing deck has been more or less filled with new generators.
In other words, it’s hard to imagine that some major structural changes or short landings for the Falcon Boosters could upgrade SpaceX’s already upgraded generators and thrusters to just read The Instructions Just Read Read.
In defense of the drone ship JRTI, the east coast is still experiencing the remnants of Hurricane Sally, as Hurricane Teddy has a few days left. Just 48 hours from now, the Starlink-12’s Falcon 9 booster landing zone will be subject to 30-40 miles (50-70 km / h) of wind and 15 feet (~ 4.5 m) of peak wave height in the shadow of Teddy. That area will be unbearable for a booster landing until early September 24 or 25 without any major changes to the sea current forecast.
Current weather models Dello predicts global warming to increase the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, however, warming will greatly increase the intensity of hurricanes. As such, it’s a bit of a wash off as investing heavily in dramatic drone ship performance improvement would be really worth the Falcon Booster recovery, although the tropical storm season lasts only a fraction of a year. If SpaceX wants to launch from Florida consistently 50-100+ times per year, it’s probably no brainer.
Regardless, if SpaceX follows much more improvements than the current setup of Just Read the Instructions, it will be interesting to see what the company’s two workhorse drone ships look like. If the current forecast is made, Starlink-12 is unlikely to launch until next weekend, a delay that has pushed Starlink-13 (previously net in late September) into October.
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