SpaceX FCC’s paper includes the company’s unpacked October Manifesto for the launch of the Unknown Falcon 9, the first operational astronaut launch of a crew dragon from several Starlink missions.
Under the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC), companies must submit an application for permission to communicate with their rocket for each launch. Those requests for “special provisional authority” (STA) to communicate, despite being a major annoyance to companies and an undeniable clunky process, are the only way in which people can independently monitor and predict US launch activities. For SpaceX, the company typically applies for multiple STAs for each single launch, including specific applications for booster launches, landings, and preflight ground tests.
Separate STAs may have a “mission number” attached to SpaceX, which is attached to each, while coordinates for determining the area of landing communications (i.e. drone ship recovery zones), often reveal the route of a mission. Combined, the STA can always be used to identify specific missions (i.e. Starlink launches, crew dragons, etc.). The STA has already been identified for SpaceX’s upcoming Crew Dragon Crew-1 and Cargo Dragon CRS-21 missions, as well as several Starlink launches.
Thanks to bad weather and the provocation of ULA delays, SpaceX’s October October manifesto currently includes three Starlink missions, U.S. GPS III for the military is full of satellite launches and the International Space Station’s (ISS) first operational astronaut mission. Except for a miracle, ULA’s latest Delta IV mass launch has pushed SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 mission to October 1st.
Starlink-12 – This year follows SpaceX’s 11th Starlink mission and GPS III SV04 on October 1st at 9:17 am. Starlink-13 and Starlink-14 are then scheduled to launch in mid-October. Finally, SpaceX and NASA crews are in the final stages of preparing for Dragon’s Crew-1 mission – the first operational delivery of the astronauts to the spacecraft’s ISS – October 31 (Halloween) soon.
The new Sirius XM radio satellite (SXM-7) may launch on the Falcon 9 rocket on November 6. On the West Coast, SpaceX’s first California mission since June 2019 could begin on November 10. SpaceX and NASA are also targeting the launch debut of the upgraded Cargo Dragon 2 Ripley spacecraft on a mission called CRS-21, which will take off on November 15, NET. Last but not least, Turkey’s Turkest 5A Communications Satellite could launch as early as November 31. No Starlink mission is currently scheduled for November but it is safe to assume there will be at least one or two. Together, SpaceX already has five launches scheduled for launch October and four sets for November. While undeniably fruitful, SpaceX has never started more than three times a month.
Now, on top of that swath of payload launches, the mysterious “SpaceX Mission 1512” has joined the fray. Based on the FCC STA request, the mission is scheduled to launch before 3rd October 3G (with a six-month window) and will include a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Falcon 9 booster landing. RTLS landing in particular handles the mission significantly and means – just outside the bolt – that it may not be for Starlink, while the cargo Dragon CRS-21 (RTLS Landing STA already exists) and the Crew Dragon Crew – 1 (drone ship landing). Simply put, RTLS denies every other launch on SpaceX’s 2020 manifesto, in addition to the temporarily scheduled rideshare mission in December, and SpaceX almost never filed an STA months ago.
It leaves some kind of undeclared, mysterious mission. Only once in the history of SpaceX has the company made an unannounced launch – a surprise for some unknown branch of the US military or spy device. Known as Zuma and still shrouded in secrecy, it follows an almost identical pattern, which was only revealed by FCC launching and landing communications requests and rumors in 2017, just before the January 2018 launch. Although Northrop Grumman was thrown under the bus for a failed payload adapter that may or may not have defused the satellite, no federal agency has taken credit for the mission – obscure as far as space travel goes.
At the time, unofficial rumors published on Reddit indicated that Zuma would be the first in just many similar missions. The failure of a spring-like deployment mechanism and the loss of the spacecraft – believed to be worth one or several billion dollars – will surprisingly throw the wrench into those gears hours after launch. Now, almost three years later and amid an exceptionally busy period of many important launches, can SpaceX prepare for Zuma-2?
Check out Teslarati’s newsletters For prompt updates, ground views and a unique glimpse of SpaceX’s rocket launch and re-launch acquisition processes.
