Scientists warn that more and more young people are being infected with COVID-19, creating the potential for a severe outbreak.
They say the change in demographics could be attributed to lockdown fatigue, increased evidence, or feelings of invincibility.
Brett Snider, a water resources PhD student at the University of Guelph, first noticed an increased number of infections in the age groups under 20 and 20-29 in the Toronto and Peel regions in May.
Snider’s supervisor Ed McBean said he was puzzled by the increase in infections in the under-20 group because daycares and schools were closed.
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“And we think ‘whoa.’ Little ones don’t tend to get violently sick, but they will bring it home. And if you have multiple generations or even visitors, you will get that increase as a result, “said McBean, an engineering professor at the University of Guelph.
While the numbers have stabilized in Peel and Toronto, McBean said there has been an increase in infections in younger people in other parts of the country.
“That is critical because once you start increasing it can explode very quickly,” he said.
McBean said he is especially concerned about the increase in infections in the under-20 age group.
Children who may be sick generally show no symptoms and when they share a space or toys, they can pass the infection on to others and then take it home, he said.
“If we start to see an increase in the younger age bracket, there is no doubt that it will eventually spread from parents to grandparents, and can have serious impacts on older populations.”
McBean said his message to public health officials is to keep daycare and schools closed.
Data from British Columbia, Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island show an increase in COVID-19 infections in the age groups of 20-29 years. The figures also show that more women are testing positive for COVID-19.
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Canadian Public Health Agency numbers show that during the second week of July, the highest proportion of new cases reported _ 22 percent of female cases and 28 percent of male cases _ was among the group 20 to 29 years old.
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Since the start of the pandemic, 14% of cases of women and 15% of cases of men have increased in that age group.
Younger age groups now account for a higher percentage of positive tests, while older age groups are generally falling, according to the data.
A clinical professor at the University of British Columbia School of Population and Public Health said the increase could be because it’s summer and fewer job opportunities during the pandemic mean more time for young people to spend with friends.
Stephen Hoption Cann said that when they meet in larger groups, young people can potentially transmit the virus because they may show no symptoms or have a mild infection.
“They have to be cautious in social gatherings, pubs and bars,” he said.
“You never really know when you’re around the person who might be infected, so you have to be more cautious.”
Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Toronto’s associate medical health officer, said health officials have noticed the same trend, noting that healthy people don’t show symptoms, have very mild symptoms, or don’t know they have COVID-19.
“I think that potentially contributes to a certain complacency,” he said at a recent press conference.
While young people may not see the infection as a “big problem,” they can pass it on to someone close to them with an underlying medical condition, Yaffe said.
British Columbia public health officials said from the start that many long-term care and assisted living facilities were badly affected and most of the province’s new cases are now in the broader community.
“We are concerned about the increase in new cases in recent days as COVID-19 continues to circulate quietly in our communities,” the BC health minister and the provincial health official recently said in a statement.
Another factor to consider is a higher number of infections among women.
Julia Smith, an associate researcher at the Simon Fraser University School of Health Sciences, said Canada had a higher proportion of infected women than other countries near the start of the pandemic.
Age and employment may be factors, he said.
Most residents of long-term care homes tend to be women, he noted. Such homes were the first to be hit with COVID-19 in Canada, killing thousands of older people.
Women also tend to account for a higher proportion of healthcare workers who would have more interactions with patients, putting them at higher risk for infection, Smith said.
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McBean said messages to maintain safe social distance and wash hands frequently, wear a mask, and meet in small groups outdoors are still the best way to avoid infection.
Keeping the Canada-United States border closed for as long as possible would also help prevent external infections from entering the community, he said.
McBean said provinces must follow strict protocols to keep the virus contained and keep the R-value below one. The R value or the reproduction rate represents the average number of new people who will contract the disease from an infected person.
If the R value is less than one, then the epidemic is being controlled. If R is greater than one, then the epidemic is growing.
“We are on a very fine line as it is now in Ontario. So we just have to be very careful that that number doesn’t start rising again and being above one, “said McBean.
McBean said the provinces must continue to follow strict protocols to keep the virus contained.
“Basically, we are doing quite well,” he said. “I mean this is a terribly infectious virus and so easy to transmit. It is much worse than the others. This is pretty bad.
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© 2020 The Canadian Press
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