Scientists have created a mathematical model to determine whether American states are in a ‘second growth period’ of coronavirus infection.
Researchers at the University of Sydney in Australia determined any state with a ‘second spike’ based on the data, which is less than the previous fifth, not a true second wave because it is so small.
Using this method, they established that, by the end of July, at least 31 states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were in the second phase.
Nearly 13 states, including California, Texas and Georgia, had slightly lower infection rates and did not track down so they were still in their first wave.
Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey had managed to flatten their respective turns completely, and their first bounce was ‘complete’, with no other bounce.
The team says the findings could help local and state legislators determine whether to ease sanctions by finding the difference between infection rates and lower route rates when there is a steady or insufficient reduction.
Scientists have created a mathematical model to determine whether American states are in a ‘second growth period’ of coronavirus infection. Image: Institutions have been moved in a refrigerator truck serving as a temporary veterinarian outside Wyke Hospital during a coronavirus epidemic in Brooklyn, New York.
Still in the first wave: Thirteen states, such as Georgia (left) and California (right), have been found to be in their first wave. This is because cases with significant downgrades were on the rise in these states from January to July.
Now in the second wave: At least 31 states, including Florida (left) and Ohio (right), have seen their second surge. These states had an initial surge, followed by a decrease in infection and then another rise
Dr Nick James, co-author of the PhD student at the University of Sydney’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, said:
‘Instead, health officials should search for identical local maxima and minima, showing when surgeons reach their peak and when they are demonstrated.’
For the study, published in the journal Chaos, the team looked at data from all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from January 21, 2020 to July 31, 2020.
The researchers adjusted the raw daily case average to a low average that occurs especially on weekends and on negative calculation days that the county is correcting errors.
Once the data is smooth, the mathematical model detects peaks and troughs, and identifies a curve.
A curve was known as a sudden downward or downward curve as a way of speaking.
Peak height and trough should also be differentiated by a certain amount.
For example, the second wave with less than five cases does not qualify as a second wave in the first case because it is too low, the researchers say.
Thirteen states, including California, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas, saw an increase in the number of cases over the entire seven-month period.
Because of this, they Still considered in their first wave with only a growing number of infections.
Wave over: New York (left) and New Jersey (right) managed to flatten their curve after their first wave and they were not found to be in any bounce.
The researchers assigned 31 states, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to the sequence TPTP, i.e. the first zero case, then the second trough and peak.
This means that these states are currently in their second wave, which is the initial surge after which the infection is declining and then another rise.
Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey flattened their respective curves by the end of July, and so everyone experienced just one wave.
The remaining four states, Arizona, Utah, Maine and Vermont, are still coming down compared to their first surgeries (the previous two states) and the second (two later states).
“This is not a predictable model,” James said.
‘It is an analytical tool that will help policymakers determine the curve that characterizes COVID infection.’
The co-author of the You Mathematical Sciences Center at Tsinghua University in Beijing, Dr. Max Menzies said the analysis shows how the controls are reduced when the turn is just pinched and not going down, while the fatal second order can be increased.
“The real morality of this paper is that Covid-19 is very contagious and very difficult to control,” he said.
‘The true turn, where new cases are legally in recession and not only exhibit stable fluctuations, should be seen before any sanctions are eased.
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