Scientists are concerned about new research on the UK’s coronavirus variant

The coronavirus variant that emerged in the United Kingdom is now global, and growing evidence is confirming the initial suspicions of some scientists: it is a super spreader capable of eradicating the epidemic and obliterating the less transmissible strains of the virus.

Now that the new variant has established Beachhead in the United States and more than 40 other countries, the race to include it continues. It competes with a handful of genetically modified vaccines against viral strains, equipped with vaccines, masks and hand sanitizers, which have frightened them from the moment they are discovered.

There’s some good news: Researchers who have measured and modeled the powers of the UK variable have found no reason to believe it invades its body then makes people sick. It also doesn’t seem to reduce the time it takes for a newly infected person to spread the virus – a development that can produce rapid dynamic waves of new patients.

And other new research reinforces the case that COVID-19 vaccines given in the United States and elsewhere should protect against new variants.

But other findings are more ominous. Using a number of specialized methods to track the type of UK and compare its complements, two groups of researchers have concluded that the rapid growth of new strains in Britain cannot be ruled out as a fluke.

And as soon as the new strain has spread to its native land, it is ready to do better here. Once it reached the U.S. Once established in – one potential expert sees as inevitable – it will require more stringent public health measures than those adopted so far, a faster vaccine rollout, and a greater willingness to vaccinate.

“We’re losing the race with the coronavirus – it’s infecting people more quickly than it can inject into people’s weapons, and it’s reaching our social distance,” said Derek Cummings, a biology scientist at the University of Florida. “Now this is the variant that will make that race harder.”

According to new research, genetic variation of the new variant has increased its transmissibility by about 56%, although it can be as low as 0% and 0%.

With this competitive advantage, it will quickly become the most commonly encountered strain in any area where it meets toldhold. As it happens, coronavirus infections – and growing illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths – that tobacco will fly.

“The main thing is that this new variable will be difficult to control if it is controlled,” said Ira Longini, an infectious disease modeler at the University of Florida who was not involved in any of the British studies.

And it will handle, he added.

The superpower of the new variable, as evidenced in Britain, is the ability to be plowed and easily propagated by public health carriers. It spread for at least a month and will probably last longer before it is discovered by the sharp-eyed (and well-funded) geneticists of the United Kingdom.

The travel ban was predictable in making those bottles up. This variable, known to scientists as B.1.1.7, has so far been included in 47 countries, including remote areas such as Australia, Australia, Chile and Japan.

Longini said that in 2009, the disease was caused by a small number of new genetic predispositions. Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny Tiny

“I don’t see what he’s going to stop,” he said. “It should spread to the earth.”

What does such enhanced transmissibility mean? Imagine a party of masculine people, none of whom are immune to the SARS-Cavi-2 virus. If a person carrying a typical stress walks for a few hours and gets confused, two to three extra people are likely infected at home.

If the same party was infected with B1.1.7, the virus was transmitted during the same event. to to 3.3 new victims can be found.

The difference may seem small, but as newer generations become infected, the effect will increase. In a month, a single person with a UK variant can produce 150 new infections – a fourfold increase in about 39 cases, resulting from an older strain of coronavirus.

In reality, the UK variant will likely meet a little more resistance in the United States. At this stage of the epidemic, about 1 in 5 guests at the party have already been infected and have taken some immunosuppressive measures that may be helpful. In addition, some social distance is likely to be observed, the party may be held outside, and many attendees wear masks.

In these circumstances, someone with the typical SARS-Co-2 strain could potentially find a person; Rarely lucky night for the virus, two people will leave the infection. At this rate, the epidemic is growing at a relatively nice pace, and a month later, a total of three people have been infected.

B.1.1. picture changes this picture. A carrier at the same party will pass its infection to 1.5 to two other victims. A month later, in the initial case, 11 to 16 new infections appear.

In the competition between viral strains, this competitive advantage is significant. The goal of the virus is to detect and invade new entities. The form of capturing more of it, and in turn infecting even more institutions, would take the treasury ahead of its rivals and establish its dominance.

In short order, more cowardly hurricanes are crowded out of the landscape together, and the brush calls for shots of budding epidemics.

For example, experts warn that the increased transmissibility of B1.1’s will increase the proportion of the population that needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop the epidemic.

In order for the virus to reject enough new victims to keep the epidemic alive and evolving, you need to unfamiliarize its further carriers – surround – in other words, vaccinated – people who will stand their ground and harden the transmission. As good as the virus is in infecting new victims, you need more unpredictable people in the population to block the path to new victims.

Even before the threat of B.1.1..7 was fully understood, the U.S. Health officials said based on their herd estimates, how many Americans would need to be vaccinated to establish herd immunity here. However, their initial estimates were about 70% of the population, but the country’s chief infectious disease specialist Dr. Experts, including Anthony Fauci, have raised their target to 85%.

However, a survey completed in early December by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that only 1% of Americans would definitely or possibly be vaccinated against the covid-1 vaccine. Another recent survey found that the proportion of willing Americans was more than half.

In Britain, the growing infectivity of the UK strain was demonstrated by two groups of researchers using a number of techniques.

The first group, Imperial K College Ledge London’s influential team of infectious disease models, uses genetic sequencing techniques that allow them to detect time-stamp infections and the progression of the virus through the population. They compared the growth of B1.1.7 in three different regions of England and found similar growth patterns in all of them.

For further confirmation, they tested thousands of positive coronavirus tests. Early genetic screens that are widely used to confirm infection include the U.K. Adopts a stress signal, thereby betraying the presence of specific changes.

Through this measure, too, the location and growth rate of the new genetic type – and its continued ability to elbow other strains – led researchers to estimate how much more transmissible it is. And he said its rapid growth cannot be explained by local conditions (such as a particularly vulnerable population of senior citizens) or environmental circumstances (such as cold weather forcing people to spend more time indoors) Adapted to a new type of position. Viral strain.

Another group of researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used many similar techniques. They fitted the data spread across mathematical models to show the similarity of the footprint of B.1.1.7 in different regions and to explore the possible causes of the compatibility they observed.

They concluded that the rapid emergence of the infection in Britain had to be fueled by one or more changes to the genetic code of the new variant, although they were not sure what the difference was.

That’s a guess. But experts say it’s good.

“If you give me one piece of evidence from this study, I can say I don’t buy it outright,” said UC Irwin biostatist Vladimir Minnie, who was not involved in the study either. “But the authors have provided some evidence that even the most skeptical of us cannot deny. This is really solid evidence that this is actually a rapidly spreading virus. “

With people in the country struggling to wear masks, stay at home and avoid gatherings, vaccines seem to be the only way. And the advent of B1.1.7 has become a case of preferring the elderly and those who are naturally prone to illness or die of infection, said Dr. Harvard, director of the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. Said Mark Lipsich. That way, even if Americans can’t stop the spread of the more challenging virus, the vaccine could “discredit” its effects, he said.

But first, Cummings said, they must be given time to work. And will demand more hygienic efforts if additional deaths are prevented.

There is a moment similar to the early days of the epidemic, when Americans were told to make sacrifices to “pinch the curve” to make time for the supply of ventilators, protective devices and healthcare workers to the hospital. At this point, the curve that should be flattened is the steer.

However, Cummings said, “We should not raise our hands and say this is a lost cause. We get help every week. We have these public health tools and we can do something to delay all infections and give more time to vaccinate. “