The San Francisco Director of Public Health said at a morning press conference that cases and hospitalizations are emerging in this city, and “if we don’t do better, we are seeing major problems.”
Dr. Grant Colfax went on to describe a scenario in which San Francisco could have an average peak of 900 hospitalizations in early October.
“And just to put this in some frame of reference, in our last increase in April, we hit a maximum of 94 cases,” he said. “This average scenario of 900 cases is almost 10 times worse. And it is certainly not the worst case scenario we could have at that time; the models show that we could have thousands of cases hospitalized by then. “
The rate of virus reproduction, cases, hospitalizations, and the time it takes to obtain test results have increased.
All reopening measures have been completely stopped. And setbacks may be in the works if the numbers don’t improve, he said.
Colfax started by talking about the reproduction rate, which the city estimates at 1.3, which means that the average patient infects another 1.3 people. This means that the problem is growing; any number above 1 is cause for concern.
“If we don’t do better, we are seeing major problems,” he said.
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“It is certainly possible if our conditions do not improve, a pullback may also be necessary in San Francisco and other places in the Bay Area,” he said.
Colfax attributed the increase to two factors: more meetings and an increase in essential workers who are testing positive for the virus. He said the city was monitoring the precautions companies are taking and urged residents to avoid large gatherings, wear masks, and practice social distancing.
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Case rates, he said, have increased to 7.7 per 100,000. The goal is 1.8 per 100,000. Hospitalization rates are increasing by 33 percent, compared to the target of no more than 10 percent, and the city’s supply of PPE and PPE has dropped to 78 percent from where the city would like it was.
He blamed the decline in EPP on “increased domestic demand.”
All nine county hospitals continued to be able to handle any immediate increase. “Right now,” she said. “We have 27 percent of our intensive care beds available and 28 percent of our intensive care units.”
In response to a question about cookouts and whether that would be closed, Colfax said it was clear that indoor activities were more risky, but said, “We are looking to determine if the increase is due to cookouts. ”
He encouraged the public to call 311 if they saw restaurants that did not adhere to manufacturing and distancing safety protocols.
“We have been and continue to be in a period of uncertainty,” he said.
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