Republicans would always be on defense this year, with twice as many GOP seats as Democrats on the ballot. But because the party’s political environment has shifted in recent months, and Democratic challengers have raised gloomy eye-openers, it has only made their chances impossible.
“Right now, Republicans have a pretty leaky boat, and they need to decide which hole they want to close,” said JB Poersch, president of the Democratic Super PAC Senate Majority PAC, which has boosted $ 4 million in Michigan. Democratic Senator Gary Peters. “Their problem now is that there is more than one hole in the boat.”
Instead of being abused in presidential battlefield states where Democrats are defending seats, the party is instead focused on more and more overhauls. vulnerable residents in Georgia, Iowa and Montana. It’s all part of a strategy that Republicans say is best designed to withstand national gusts and retain the majority
“If Republicans protect all their scammers, they would have a majority. That’s her job, “said Mike DuHaime, a veteran GOP strategist who ran the NRSC – independent publishing program in 2010 and 2012. They would like to expand the majority, but that is not the first job. It makes sense that you try to protect neighbors you first have in a challenging environment, and then work to expand. ”
In Michigan, though James almost did corresponds to Peters dollar for dollar this cycle, at present he has no outside help. No major groups on the Republican side, including the National Republican Senate Committee as the top First Chamber GOP super PAC, have some money reserved for TV in the state between now and election day. The same is true in Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico, all states where Republicans may have tried to expand into an environment that was not so dangerous to the party.
Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC voted on Majority Songs Mitch McConnell, added nearly $ 23 million in six states last week and has now booked $ 113 million across 8 states with GOP intruders between August and election day. None of the group’s money is earmarked for seat flaps. (An affiliated nonprofit has invested $ 4 million in Alabama.)
The NRSC raised $ 2.5 million in Michigan earlier this year, but it has not been there since June and has not booked anything at the moment. Have democratic groups from outside spent at higher levels to encourage Peters, and a Democratic nonprofit posted seven figures this month.
Steven Law, the president of SLF, said the group ‘kept a close eye on Michigan’ and called James a ‘compelling candidate’, praising his money-making capacity. But like other Republicans, he pointed to Joe Biden’s leadership in the state as a factor in the vote.
“I think the big question will be whether the presidential race ends up being limited,” Law said. “If it does, that’s a race that could close.”
“In 2014, we basically ran the table,” Law added of the broader lack of offensive goals. “What that means is that there is not much empty hanging fruit left in this House of Representatives class – except in a state like Michigan, where the Democrat was lucky to run out in 2014 against a very weak candidate. “
The NRSC’s continued spending over the summer has targeted mostly Democratic challengers, with the aim of driving up negative images of candidates in key seats in the GOP holdings.
“The First Democrats have already seen that sentiment turn against them because we highlight the personal scandals and liberal policies they do not want by mainstream voters,” NRSC spokeswoman Jesse Hunt said in a statement. He said James’ campaign was well positioned to contrast his message of ‘counter-orientation leadership’ against Peters.
James’ campaign has continued to show confidence in his ability to put the Senate race into play, pointing in particular to his strong fundraising – he outraised Peters in the first six months of 2020 and also increased more than many incumbent senators. But public polling has shown Peters with a constant lead between mid-single digits and double digits.
Peters and James have spent almost parity in the game. The NRSC spent $ 2.5 million, and Better Future MI Fund, a super PAC that encourages James, spent $ 1.3 million. But Democratic outreach groups, including VoteVets, Senate Majority PAC and a handful of others, have combined to spend more than $ 8 million.
Curt Anderson, a senior strategist for James’ campaign, notes that questioning comes amid the massive defensive uprising, saying political handicappers are foolish to think Michigan is lost to Republicans.
“This is a difficult year to run as a leader. Anyone who is serious about Republican control of the House of Representatives should invest in John James, “Anderson said, calling Peters the” least effective and least known “senator in the country.
Vanessa Valdivia, a spokeswoman for Peters, denied that James was McConnell’s’ handpicked candidate ‘, and that Peters’ two-partisan record would stop the Republican attacks.
Democrats have not taken Michigan for granted, and in many cases have sounded alarms about satisfaction. Peters’ campaign has highlighted his fundraising to supporters and continued to attack James more aggressively than the party did when he ran against sen in 2018 without success. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).
National Democrats have repeatedly pointed to Republicans’ defensive investments as a sign that they have expanded the House of Representatives card more than expected at the start of this election cycle, leaving their defensive states safer.
Speaking about the broader Republican defense position, Poersch pointed out that Senate Leadership Fund, its Republican opponent of the group, placed initial advertising reserves in Montana and Georgia before Democrats did so.
“It’s unusual when the other side comes first and expands the map for you,” said Poersch.
The lack of offensive investment extends to Minnesota, where former GOP rep. Jason Lewis challenge from Senator Tina Smith, and New Mexico, where former TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti runs against Democrat Rep. Ben Ray Luján. In New Hampshire, Republicans will face a primary September between veterans Don Bolduc and Bryant “Corky” Messner against Senator Jeanne Shaheen. None of those races are considered strong goals or have received investment from national Republicans, despite the Trump campaign playing out in all three.
Republicans said Senate Leadership Fund like the NRSC in Michigan could reinvest – if the game got tighter after Labor Day, as it did in the 2016 presidential race, during the 2018 Senate race. in which James made his first run for office, he trained substantially in every question in the fall, but lost to Stabenow by 7 percentage points, a tighter-than-expected finish in a strong Democratic year.
‘They always protect their income first. That’s the initial goal, “said Saul Anuzis, a former Republican state faction president in Michigan.” I think Michigan is a better pick-up opportunity than any state in the country, and they keep their options open. They just make the early investments they would make as president if the party did better in the election. “
