Republican strategists across the country are concerned that President Trump
Donald John Trump More than a dozen people injured in shootings near Chicago funeral home Players of the Cleveland Indians meet with team leaders to discuss the possible name change Pelosi calls the coronavirus the ‘Trump virus’ MOREVocal opposition to voting by mail is resonating with Republicans, jeopardizing the party’s efforts for years to register people to vote by mail.
Voting by mail expanded has become a mainstay of modern political campaigns, allowing Democrats and Republicans to get millions of votes days or weeks before Election Day. Once voters are crossed off the target lists, campaigns can target those who have not yet voted, conserving precious time and money in the final days of an election.
“Whether we like it or not, increasing the vote by mail will be a reality this fall,” said Phil Cox, former head of the Association of Republican Governors. “Successful campaigns will need an integrated mail voting strategy that combines messaging, modeling, and targeting. Anything less than that will be casting votes.”
But Trump wrongly claimed that voting by mail opens the election to possible widespread fraud, even though he himself has voted by mail.
“Voting by mail, unless changed by the courts, will lead to the MOST CORRUPT ELECTION in our nation’s history! #RIGGEDELECTION ” Trump tweeted Tuesday.
The President has never offered proof that voting by mail generates fraud. A commission Trump established in 2017 to search for election fraud, led by Vice President Pence and former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), quietly withdrew after finding no evidence.
But now it seems that Republican voters are listening to Trump’s attacks. A Pew Research Center poll conducted last month found that 83 percent of Democrats said voters should be able to vote early or absent without excuse, compared to just 44 percent of Republican voters who said the same thing. .
More than 50% of Republican respondents, 55 percent, said voters should only be able to vote early or absent if they had a documented reason not to participate in person on Election Day.
“It is a big problem,” said a Republican strategist who asked not to be identified. “The Republicans I speak to are concerned. They are already seeing its effects. “
As the primary season progresses, Democratic voters have obtained record numbers across the country, with many opting to vote by mail, suggesting massive turnout in November. Republican participation has been strong, although not revolutionary.
No excuse is required to vote by mail in 34 states and the District of Columbia. The remaining states that require an excuse include New Hampshire and Texas, two states that are likely to be competitive in this year’s presidential race.
Five states, Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington, conduct their elections entirely by mail. All but one of California’s counties do the same, and several states held primaries this year entirely by mail to limit the risk of spread of the coronavirus.
A substantial body of research indicates that voting by mail does not give an advantage to either party. In some states, Republicans tend to be overrepresented in vote-by-mail participation, while Democrats tend to favor early voting in person. In others, that trend is reversed.
But if one group of voters overwhelmingly votes by mail and another is discouraged from doing so, it can make a difference in November. Various Democratic groups, including one led by the former first lady Michelle Obama
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Some Republicans have resisted Trump, either in public or in private. Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R) is scheduled to send an absentee ballot request form to all active voters before the November election, after obtaining approval from state lawmakers last week. Other election administrators are considering doing the same, after successful efforts during the primary elections in states like Georgia and Nevada.
Texas Republicans used this month’s runoff elections to experiment with ways to persuade older people to request ballot-by-mail, although the data is not yet available, a senior strategist behind the tests said.
Trump’s own campaign has urged people to vote by mail, despite the president’s warnings. In an email sent to Pennsylvania Republicans, the Trump campaign pressured supporters to request an absentee ballot.
“President Trump is counting on you to vote for him and make sure he has a HISTORICAL stake in Pennsylvania. Request your ballot and vote from your own home, “the email said.
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