WASHINGTON – As the Kansas Senate primary election ends, tensions rise between Senate Republicans and the White House over the possible nomination of Kris Kobach, whom party officials fear will jeopardize the seat and put further danger to its majority in the Senate.
Senator Mitch McConnell is concerned that Kobach, the controversial former Kansas secretary of state who lost the 2018 governor’s race, may win the nomination in Tuesday’s primaries, only to lose the seat in November, and is frustrated that the President Trump does not intervene in the race, according to multiple Republican officials.
Mr. McConnell and other Republican Senate leaders have urgently asked the President to block Mr. Kobach by backing one of his opponents, Representative Roger Marshall. But Trump has so far refused to do so, and his aides said they had no plans to change course. To compound the frustration of Capitol Hill Republicans, White House advisers have refused to tell Kobach, a longtime Trump supporter, to stop using the president’s images in his campaign materials.
With a number of Senate Republicans in power following the polls, and being outclassed by their Democratic rivals, they have little margin for error in trying to protect their 53-47 majority. And because of Trump’s widespread unpopularity, and a health crisis that has devastated the economy, even a deeply conservative state like Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, is not a sure thing for Republicans of the Senate this year.
“We have eight months of data saying that most will disappear if Kris Kobach is the nominee,” said Josh Holmes, a top lieutenant to Mr. McConnell. “It’s that easy.”
Trump’s reluctance to get into the race illustrates his growing anxiety about his conservative base, whose core is supporting Mr. Kobach in Kansas. Recently, the President has attempted to reinforce his position to the right by taking a series of positions, particularly on race and protests, aimed at solidifying Republican voters who have turned away from him for his ineffective response to the coronavirus outbreak.
On a related note, Trump, even as he sinks in the general election, is proud of his record for wins and losses in the Republican primaries where he has endorsed the candidates, and is scary to be seen as a diminished influence within the Republican Party. .
Mr. Kobach has long been an incendiary figure in Kansas politics, associated with hard-line views on immigration, voting rights, and a host of other topics. It is especially unpopular in the Kansas City suburbs, home to traditionally moderate Republicans who have drifted away from the Trump-era party. Republicans in Kansas and Washington remain frustrated that he captured the governor’s nomination two years ago, which they believe cost them the seat.
Senate Republicans have been concerned about Mr. Kobach’s candidacy, and for months tried to lure Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former Kansas congressman, into the race. However, they have become even more uncomfortable in recent days, after reviewing the results of the Republican polls in the Senate: Polls showed that Trump led by only a narrow margin in the state and found that almost 30 percent of Republican primary voters indicated they would support the Democrat in the Senate race, State Senator Barbara Bollier, if Mr. Kobach were the candidate, according to two Republicans familiar with the data.
Trump expressed frustration at having backed Kobach’s candidacy for governor two years ago only to see him lose, and many Republicans in Congress believed the president would try to stop Kobach’s candidacy this year.
But party officials were seriously alarmed on Thursday after receiving the news that the president was unwilling to support Marshall.
According to two people familiar with the conversation, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas used an Air Force One flight with the president on Wednesday to steer Trump away from supporting Marshall. Cruz told Trump that Marshall had supported former Ohio Governor John Kasich, now a Trump critic, in the 2016 primaries. Cruz, who ran against Trump, has tried to raise some anti-establishment candidates and his top political adviser. You are working for another candidate in the career.
Mr. Cruz’s representatives declined to comment.
The push and pull between McConnell and Cruz reflects the extent to which Trump is increasingly being used by rival Republican party factions, who recognize that he is a useful ally in intraparty fights and that the way to lure him in is to play by his insecurities.
Establishment-aligned Republicans, however, are especially nervous about how the race is building and about Trump’s role in it.
“I don’t get it,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican strategist and Marshall pollster, asked about Trump’s position on the sidelines thus far. “Given how tight things are looking in terms of having the majority, why wouldn’t we all be trying to make sure we have a shot at winning, taking this seat in the Kansas Senate. It’s troubling for sure.”
David Kensinger, a veteran Kansas Republican strategist, noted that Trump’s 2018 endorsement of Kobach had not been forgotten.
“Kris Kobach’s career would have ended two years ago had it not been for Trump’s endorsement: this is the opportunity for the president to fix it,” he said, still waiting for an endorsement from Marshall.
But when asked if he had seen any indication that Trump would, he replied, “I have not,” an opinion shared by another Republican strategist involved in the race.
Mr. Kobach and Mr. Marshall are fighting in a brutal and crowded contest that has been defined by negative ads and commercials. Particularly troubling to Senate Republicans, an outside group, which appears to be linked to Democrats, has also been doing a lot of publicity and attacking Mr. Marshall in an effort to rise. Mr. Kobach
In a statement, Mr. Kobach said the data showed that he would also be competitive against Ms. Bollier.
“They know that their alleged reason for supporting Marshall is false,” he said of what he called the Republican establishment. “The real reason is that they want a yes in the Senate, not a conservative of principle.”
Certainly, a state run in Kansas remains a challenge for any Democrat, regardless of opponent, in a state where many religious voters prioritize issues like abortion and the courts, and some moderate voters are wary of the possibility of a US-controlled Senate. Democrats, whatever their feelings about Trump, who is still expected to win the state.
And there are many party leaders who hope that Mr. Marshall will prevail in the end. The crowded and negative nature of the Republican primaries has made the race smooth and unpredictable, and Mr. Marshall is supported by a group of prominent deep pocket groups and influential figures, including former Senator Bob Dole, the House. of Commerce and a host of other conservative organizations
“Next week is a great week for Republicans a chance to hold on to the Senate,” said Scott W. Reed, a senior political strategist at the United States Chamber of Commerce, pointing to the race in Kansas and Tennessee. “Nominating a cold stone loser in Kansas will ensure we lose in the fall.”
The primary winner is expected to take on Ms. Bollier, a retired anesthesiologist who until recently was a Republican and who did not have a significant primary battle on her own.
Kansas Republican Party President Mike Kuckelman said he did not blame Trump for not intervening, but said the president “would probably have affected the race if he had endorsed someone.”
“Maybe it would have made the race a little bit easier,” he said.
