As he wrote for CNN on Saturday, election forecaster Harry Enten argued that it’s not just public polls showing President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress lose big in November, they’re also the Republican Party’s private internal polls. .
“Perhaps it is not surprising then that when one party conducts many more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side,” Enten wrote. “Parties tend to post good polls when they have it. Since 2004, there has been an almost perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale of -1 to +1) between the proportion of partisan polls published by Democrats and the November results. “
“Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing far more polls than Republicans, suggesting that public polls showing Democrats are well supported by what parties are seeing in their own numbers,” he continued. Come on. “Liberal and Democratic aligned groups have published 17 House of Representatives polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have published 0. That is a very bad relationship for Republicans.”
This stands in contrast to the landscape of pre-coronavirus polls, Enten argued, when Republican-aligned groups released more polls, suggesting that the pandemic has fatally wounded the president and his allies, adding recent reports that the leader of Senate Majority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) can begin to advise Republican Party incumbents to distance themselves from Trump.
“This reminds me a lot of what happened just two years ago. Almost universally, Democrats were the ones who published their House polls publicly. They then netted 40 seats in the House. Democrats also won the popular vote of the House. Camera for 9 points, “wrote Enten. “In fact, the 2018 example speaks of a broader pattern since 2004. Although Democrats tend to publish more internal polls publicly, they do very well when that advantage is overwhelming.”
“For Republicans, something has to change or they are going to disappear in November,” Enten concluded.
