Four months is a long time. So we’re getting familiar with the title race by looking at all nine NBA teams with at least a 1 percent chance of winning the title based on our internal playoff odds (aka Zach Kram), plus the 76ers, who challenge all math and logic, before reopening on July 30.
The basics
Equipment: Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 53-12 (first in the Eastern Conference)
Numbers: 112.3 offensive index (tied for fifth), 101.6 defensive index (first), 10.7 net index (first)
Sowing opponents (in order of schedule): Celtics, Rockets, Nets, Heat, Mavs, Raptors, Wizards, Grizzlies
Last time, at the Bucks …
They were in a rut. Well, relatively speaking. Milwaukee had won 23 of its 27 games since New Year’s Day before losing three in a row before the season was suspended. After the Bucks fell in a highly anticipated matchup with the Lakers, Giannis Antetokounmpo retired from the next two games with a minor sprained left knee and Milwaukee lost to the Suns and Nuggets. Until then, the team had not lost consecutive games throughout the season. By all definitions, Milwaukee was a giant. His net rating was superior in the league with a staggering 3.6 points, roughly the same gap between no. 2 team (Lakers) and no. 7 equipment (rockets).
Between the loss to the Lakers and injury to the reigning MVP, the Bucks didn’t exactly show weaknesses, but they were opening the door to a couple of things: hesitation and a late MVP led by LeBron James down the stretch. Instead, the season halted for four months, Giannis is now completely healthy and has a consecutive MVP, but the Bucks are the prohibitive favorites to win the title in Orlando.
How they have been quarantined
In addition to being with her month-old baby instead of walking asleep through a series against the Wizards, Giannis played chess, taunted the media, launched live multiple times on YouTube and Instagram, and tried to learn to play the guitar. :
Emphasis on “tried”. The rest of the Bucks remained relatively calm, but some of them, along with Giannis, joined the protests in Milwaukee:
Both Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton tested positive for the coronavirus, which delayed their arrival in Orlando, but all signs point to both being on the court once games begin.
Seed Games Goals: Keep Seed Number 1, Keep Giannis Healthy
Given his remaining schedule is the 11th toughest and the Raptors have the toughest list of the 22 teams in Orlando, it would be a shock if Milwaukee somehow ruined their 6.5-game lead for first place in the East. So what to do with the eight games beyond to try to get into the rhythm? Keep Giannis healthy. Even if everything indicates that he is completely healthy, the Bucks should take load management to new extremes. Any type of injury would overturn the team’s chances in the playoffs, to say the least.
The biggest question about the bubble on the court: How much will Mike Budenholzer put on Giannis’ shoulders?
Notably, Giannis appears to be the fugitive MVP despite averaging just 30.9 minutes per game (tied for 63rd in the league, behind names like [[[[check notes]Kevin Huerter), which is almost two less than what he averaged in his first MVP season last year. But what is seen as positive during the regular season becomes a point of discussion once the playoffs begin. Last season, Giannis averaged just 34 minutes per game in the postseason, and it was only until the Bucks were against the Raptors that head coach Mike Budenholzer seemed to break with his regular rotations and minute restrictions to let Giannis go to full steam.
The Bucks’ strategy makes sense: They don’t want to burn or hurt Giannis by overvaluing him. But it’s clear that with so much influence on him, the Bucks may need to flip that switch sooner than they did last season.
Featured Player: Eric Bledsoe
Giannis’ minutes are crucial, in part, because when he sits it is unclear who will step forward and start beyond Khris Middleton. Ideally for Milwaukee, that guy would be Bledsoe. That’s why the team signed him for four years and $ 70 million last March. But when the playoffs came last spring, Bledsoe suffered a sharp drop in almost every statistical category. In the end, Budenholzer trusted George Hill more.
Bledsoe’s drop in the playoffs performance is a recurring concern. Bledsoe is still not in the bubble due to his positive test, which means that he will not only lose practice time, but also practice games and potentially seed games. And Hill remains a useful base option who can reliably knock down 3s (leading the league in 3-point percentage this season), so it’s up to Bledsoe to earn his minutes.
Sure, Milwaukee can probably get through the first two rounds of the playoffs without stellar performances from Bledsoe, but when the Bucks play the Raptors, Lakers, or Clippers, a disappearing Bledsoe could be the difference between a title and having to worry about Giannis free agency next summer.
On a wizard scale of 10, where 10 is the best shot at a title, what are the odds that the Bucks will win the 2020 title?
Whether you’re a numbers player or an eye test person, there’s no question that the Bucks are a 10. They are one of only three teams, along with the Lakers and Clippers, who can claim a 10 on this scale. But Milwaukee also has all the numbers and advanced stats pointing in their favor. According to the book (and the bookmaker!), The Bucks are the true favorites.
