The Baltimore Ravens officially made what many speculated Saturday by releasing Earl Thomas after just one season with the team. The former pick of the first round from Texas played well in his lone campaign in Baltimore, collecting more than 0.4 wins over replacement at 942 snaps, that was the fifth-highest mark of his career in a season and ranked in the top-20 at his position. His departure leaves the Ravens with Chuck Clark (0.29 WAR in 2019), Anthony Levine (0.03), Jordan Richards (0.01), DeShon Elliott (0.04) and let-round draft pick Geno Stone at the safety position.
Thomas’ replacement will not be trivial for the Ravens, as his presence in the middle of the field allowed them execute a schedule in which they were one of the best teams in the NFL in forcing quarterbacks holds the ball for a relatively long time while still rushing an above-average number of players. Clark, whose confrontation was with Thomas told the straw that broke the camel’s back roared the passer at 101 passing plays in the 2019 regular season, which was mostly in the league due to a defensive back. Thomas ’54 pass-rushing snaps hit fifth among defensive backs.
When Thomas was in coverage, he let just 0.17 yards per coverage snap, which was the fifth-best mark of any safety with more than 350 coverage snaps in the regular season of 2019. He also scored fourth among safetys in goals against per string of cover in the slot (25.5), and also shows some versatility there.
While the Ravens always find a way at the back end, and Marcus Peters takes over for a pick from the Rams’ fifth-round pick last year, they will have to get creative around the power multiplier that was Thomas. That could come in the form of pay on rookie linebacker Patrick Queen and possibly Jimmy Smith as another player back to safety, as the Ravens did with veteran (and current free agent) Brandon Carr a season ago (Carr played 102 snaps at free security to the Peters trade).
From a hairdressing perspective – assuming Earl Thomas, his representative and / or the NFLPA file a grievance – the Ravens will have attributed an interim $ 2020 dollar hit to Thomas’ release for misconduct. He has $ 15 million in signing bonus amounts left over from his four-year, $ 55 million contract. And $ 5 million of that $ 15 million will count as death money in 2020, with the remaining $ 10 million as death money against the 2021 cap.
While the (assumed) grievance persists, there will be a temporary halt of $ 4 million from Thomas’ $ 10 million 2020 base salary (which is fully guaranteed) – hence the $ 9 million cap charge, while the grievance process falls, making subsequent moves at the end of the Ravens for a veteran a bit limited.
Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network report that the Cowboys, Texans and 49ers are among the teams interested in Thomas’ services. At this point in the offseason, it’s hard to imagine Thomas getting more than a one-year floor, perhaps with some incentives to get him as close as possible to the $ 10 million base salary he was from Baltimore.
The Cowboys just released about that much money with the release of the injured Gerald McCoy and the contract of Tyron Smith (again). Dallas rode just 16th in the NFL in WAR, generated by the safety position in 2019, and with Jeff Heath now playing for the Las Vegas Raiders and Byron Jones attending the Miami secondary, it would make some sense make for Dallas to engage to defend a defense that regressed from its success at the start of the 2018 season last year and a full year.
Only the Miami Dolphins had a lower WAR figure going forward than Houston last year, so it makes sense for them to get involved as well. And, seeing as they’ve already made midseason moves to get past first-rounders – like Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves – in recent years, it’s an approach we should not be surprised to take on, given that they have a healthy are distance (approx $ 21 million) under the hood. The 49ers play enough three-pointers, and are in a division close and dear to Thomas’ heart, so their inclusion on this list also makes sense.
No team in the league has too many defensive backs, and seeing the uncertainty about depth in this COVID-19 era, combined with the cap space that has opened up as a result of a number of opt-outs, Thomas scored with one of 10 -15 teams at this point would be no surprise.
