One thing that makes the NFL so entertaining every year is the fact that it is one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet, and nothing proves to be more than the league’s extraordinary ability to produce at least one team each season. that goes from worst-to-first.
Over the past five years, there have been a total of six teams that finished last season in a season with a division-winning run, and for those of you who are not good at math, that is an average of more than one team per year. That average has actually held up pretty steadily over the years: Since the NFL reorganized its divisions in 2002, there have been 25 teams that went from worst to first, which is an average of 1.4 teams per year over that span of 18 seasons.
Basically, NFL history says that at least one team goes from last place in 2019 to first place in 2020, and because we love things here, we will rank the last eight place finders from last year to determine which team has the best chances to get away with a division title in 2020.
Ranking teams are likely to go from worst to first
(All division odds via William Hill Sportsbook)
Record of 2019: 5-11
Chance to win AFC West: +1000
If these rankings were based on how talented your roster is, the Chargers would definitely not be in the last place, but these rankings are not based on that at all, then they are based on whether a team has a chance or does not win their division in 2020 and it does not feel like the Chargers really have a shot. The problem for the Chargers is that they are in the same division as the Chiefs and it is difficult to imagine one scenario where Los Angeles can take over Kansas City to win the division, especially when you consider that the Chargers are just 1-11 have been against the Chiefs since 2014. Also to win the AFC West, the Chargers will likely have to win a few division games, which is not something they could do last year (They went 0-6 against AFC West teams in 2019).
Funny fact: The Chargers only went bad-to-first once in franchise history and that came back in 1992. After going 4-12 in 1991, the Chargers followed that up with an 11-5 finish first in 1992.
Record of 2019: 5-11
Chance to win NFC South: +1800
If you are looking for a team of the last place to win a winning bet on this division, here is some advice: do not choose the Panthers. While Matt Rhule may be a fantastic coach, the chances in his first year in Carolina will certainly be stacked against him. For one, due to the pandemic, he will only have practice about four weeks before the season starts, which seems like a recipe for disaster when you consider that the Panthers are the only team in the NFL that will try to break in. new head coach, two new coordinators and a new starting quarterback this year. The Panthers are also in a division with two Super Bowl runners-up (Saints, Buccaneers) and a Falcons team that has beaten Carolina five straight times.
Funny fact: Since 2002, only three of the 25 worst-to-first teams made it to the Super Bowl and Carolina was one of those teams. The Panthers followed up a final farm season in 2002 with a Super Bowl appearance in 2003.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Record of 2019: 2-14
Chance to win AFC North: +3000
The Bengals finished last year with the worst record in the NFL, so it may seem a little crazy to talk about them as a potential division winner, but it’s something that could absolutely happen if Joe Burrow has a great season. Although rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first year on the job, there have been a few instances where the QB comes in and completely revitalizes the franchise. For example, after the Colts went 2-14 in 2011, Andrew Luck came in as a rookie and led them to an 11-5 record in 2012. The Bengals certainly have some enormous question marks entering the season (their offensive line, their full defense), but this is also a team that had an advantage in 12 of the 16 games they played last year, which means they can be better than they got credit for.
Funny fact: The idea of betting on the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl may seem crazy, but they did it before following a final-place season. In fact, they did it twice: Both Super Bowl appearances in franchise history (1981, 1988) came after a season in which the Bengals finished in last place (1980, 1987).
5. Washington Football Team
Record of 2019: 3-13
Chance to win NFC East: +1500
Ron Rivera will definitely cut out his work for him during his first season in Washington. Not only is the team dealing with his best defensive back (Quinton Dunbar) and best offensive tackle (Trent Williams) this offseason, but it’s not even clear who the starting quarterback will be, which is not an ideal situation to be with. then four weeks to go until the start of the season. Washington may have one of the scariest defensive lines in the league with Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat, but that’s about the only thing that’s scary about this team at the moment. As things stand at the moment, it looks like NFC East is a two-horse race between the Cowboys and Eagles.
Funny fact: Washington is one of only two teams in the NFL that went the least-to-first in total twice in the past decade (2010 through 2019). Washington did it in 2012 and 2015, while Houston did it in 2011 and 2018.
Record of 2019: 5-10-1
Chance to win NFC West: +700
With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals now have one of the most charged fouls in the NFL, which might make you wonder why they’re so low on this list. The answer there is that a loaded offense may not help them much in 2020 and that’s because they play in the toughest division of the NFL. In 2019, the NFC West was the only division in the NFL to produce three teams that finished above .500. The Cardinals look like a team destined to top their win total from last year, but they will likely need 11 or 12 wins to take the division crown home, and that seems like it would require too much. Although the Cardinals are only fourth on this list rankings, they have the best Vegas chances of winning the division out of all the teams from the last place of 2019.
Funny fact: Arizona is the only team on this year’s list that never went from worst-to-first.
Record of 2019: 6-10
Chance to win AFC South: +1200
The Jaguars have actually finished the 2019 season with the best record of any team from last place, and although that does not make you a candidate, they probably feel pretty good about themselves after having just four games from first place last year final place team finished at least six matches in the first place).
Jawis, the Jaguars traded two of their best defensive players this offseason (Calais Campbell and cornerback AJ Bouye), one defensive starter wants nothing to do with the team (Yannick Ngakoue) and their quarterback goes into his first full year as a starter, but the good news for the Jags is that every other team in the AFC South is also dealing with some drama.
In Indianapolis, the Colts surrendered their offense to Philip Rivers. The reason it’s risky is because Rivers looked like a 38-year-old substitute quarterback at times last season and there is no guarantee he will not look like a 38-year-old quarterback. at times in 2020. In Houston, Bill O’Brien closed his own offense by dealing with DeAndre Hopkins, and in Tennessee, Mike Vrabel has yet to prove he can lead the Titans to a record that is not 9-7. The AFC South is a winning division for the Jags, which is why they are ranked so highly.
Funny fact: Of all the teams on this list, the Jaguars are the ones that are the worst worst. The Jags won the AFC South in 2017, just one year after finishing in last place with a 3-13 record.
Record of 2019: 3-12-1
Chance to win NFC North: +850
For the first eight weeks of the 2019 season, the Lions saw a potential dark horse team to make the playoffs, but then Matthew Stafford was injured and the wheels fell off the wagon. Before Stafford’s injury, he played as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Not only was he averaging 312.4 passes per game, but he had a 106.0 QB rating and a 19-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, and he did all that, even though he still learned the system from Lions first year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. If Stafford can stay healthy, the Lions could then compete for the division title in a wide open NFC North.
Funny fact: The Lions have only one worst-to-first turnaround in franchise history, and fans in Detroit can actually remember them when it happened. After finishing last in 1992, the Lions beat NFC Central by a 10-6 record in 1993, which is remarkable because it is also the last time Detroit has won a division title.
Record of 2019: 5-11
Chance to win AFC East: +750
Last year, Dolphins coach Brian Flores grabbed five wins from a team that had to thank, and it will not be at all surprising if Miami manages to double that win in 2020. Before he was hired by the Dolphins, Flores was the de facto defensive coordinator in New England, so it was not surprising that one of the first things he did this offseason was increase his security. In recent months, the Dolphins have added multiple defensive starters with guys like Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson. The reason this is remarkable is because having a solid defense may be enough to win the AFC East this year, especially when you consider the quarterbacks in the division are a man who sees ghosts (Sam Darnold ), a boy who has a less closed career percentage than Blake Bortles (Josh Allen) and who defies New England quarterback.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep the crime on the floor, the Dolphins could shake their way to the AFC East title by 2020.
Funny fact: In the last 17 years, only one team not called New England has won an AFC East title, and that was the Dolphins in 2008. Of course, we see that here, because it involves a worst-to-first situation . After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins ran wild over everyone in 2008 through an implementation of a Wildcat offense that ended in an 11-5 record and a division title.
Fun fact of Super Bowl: Of the 25 teams that have gone the least since 2002, only three have made the Super Bowl and all three of those teams have finished at least 7-9 in the last season. Unfortunately for the last place teams on this year’s list, none of you meet these criteria, so even though one of those teams might win their division, you probably would not have to pick them to win the Super Bowl.
