Quarterbacks have created a year of dramatic ups and downs in the rankings of football outsiders of teams due to their talent being under 25 years old. With the public pressure on teams to start their rookie passers-by in Week 1 – or at least as soon as their placeholder veterans lose a few games – it’s no wonder players like Baker Mayfield can increase their teams’ status by 10 or more swing spots once they collect more than their few hundred freshman passes.
After another kind of regression, one such player put his team at the top for 2020. Despite their disappointing playoffs over the past two seasons, they are in even better shape than reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs to make Super Bowl trips over the next few seasons.
These assessments consider not only talent under 25 years, but also the value and length of the current contracts of those players. This will force the teams with productive players who have several years left on cheap rookie contracts and push down the teams that already had, or will soon have to pay for, all their experienced young talent.
Go here for more information on our ranking methodology, and go here for Intel on some statistics we refer to in full. You can learn more about these and other Football Outsiders statistics from this article, the glossary of Football Outsiders as well as in the newly released Football Outsiders Almanac for 2020.
Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are from September 1, 2020. “Blue chip” players are cornerstone assets from which teams are likely to receive their greatest future value. Players are considered ‘graduated’ when they turn 25. Read through the entire file 1 to 32, or jump to your favorite team by clicking a link here:
Going to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
2019 rankings: 25
Blue chip players: Lamar Jackson, QB; Marlon Humphrey, CB; Orlando Brown, RT; Mark Andrews, TE; Marquise Brown, WR
Notable graduate players: Bradley Bozeman, LG; Chuck Clark, SS; Gus Edwards, RB
Research from outside football has shown that quarterbacks jump their biggest performances from year 1 to year 2, but Lambert Jackson’s sophomore breakout was the Bob Beamon of those.
As a rookie, Jackson was a product of a system designed to highlight his strengths and avoid his weaknesses. He was an ineffective passer with a 58% completion rate and -9.2% DVOA, but he threw only 23 passes per game. In 2019, Jackson became the kind of quarterback a franchise can carry, despite its system as well as other issues. Its ongoing rates peaked at 66% completions and 34.9% DVOA. His running efficiency flipped from -27.2% to 20.5% DVOA, largely thanks to a reduction from 12 to nine fumbles despite eight extra starts – Jackson seems to have developed a talent for avoiding big hits, even when he to the middle of the field and even as defenders take the right angle to tackle him. Overall, Jackson led the position with an 81.8 QBR and was named the NFL MVP.
But the Ravens do not need Jackson to solve all their problems. They continue to use a system that benefits from Jackson’s talents, but they have also amassed exceptional young depth on both sides of the ball. Jackson’s favorite target – Mark Andrews – came from his same 2018 concept class. The close end of the third round ended seventh with 123 DYAR at a position whose efficiency leaders tend to be more experienced veterans and made his teammate and fellow close end Hayden Hurst spend in a trade with the Falcons. Jackson rarely needed to open the offensive outside of his running game and tight ends, but 2019 first-round Marquise Brown still struts the field with more than one-fifth of his catches coming on passes that are 20 or throw more yards into the air. Miles Boykin can do the same and should also contribute more in the red zone in 2020 with his exceptional size at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds and jumping ability. Third-round pick Devin Duvernay complements Brown and Boykin with his speed from the lock, and second-round pick JK Dobbins will have to replace an aging Mark Ingram seamlessly in 2021 when Ingram’s contract escalates or in 2022 when it expires. Finally, right-hander Orlando Brown was one of five Baltimore linemen with 500 or more snaps and a 1.5% blown rate or better. His development into a Pro Bowl blocker should help the team eventually survive the retirement of Hall of Famer Marshal Yanda.
Neither pass-rusher Jaylon Ferguson (15 haste) nor 25-year-old Tyus Bowser (22) went on to completely replace Za’Darius Smith (66), who went to the Packers in free agency in 2019. But the Ravens maintained a top-three pass defense largely thanks to excellent coverage anchored by All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey’s success rate of 67% coverage and 5.0 allowed yards per goal were top six among positional qualifiers, even ahead of Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (57%, 6.4). If the Ravens had any weakness in 2019, it was on run defense. But the team probably knew that shortage with their first- and third-round draft selections from linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison, the former of whom has the speed and athleticism to excel in coverage and play all three downs. The Ravens have so much young talent that they could have shot for the top spot in this rankings, even without Jackson under center.
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